Closing spread
ATL -5.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play-0.025
- 44.5%Success rate43.7%
- +0.041EPA / dropback+0.007
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.072
- 9.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- -3.36CPOE+1.44
- 33.5%Third-down rate35.7%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 1.82Points / drive1.80
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Penix Jr. | 18/36 | 172 | 0 | 2 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5/7 | 29 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Nate Carter | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake London | 5 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 11 | 44 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Charlie Woerner | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 16/24 | 121 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan | 3 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.06