2025 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Penix

0·30

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 83°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

ATL -5.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.008EPA / play-0.025
  • 44.5%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.007
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.072
  • 9.2%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -3.36CPOE+1.44
  • 33.5%Third-down rate35.7%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
  • 1.82Points / drive1.80
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00942Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 10:50961Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 6:4439Punt0–7
ATLQ1 5:053-3Missed field goal0–7
CARQ1 3:28623Punt0–7
ATLQ1 0:04847Punt0–7
CARQ2 10:45953Field goal0–10
ATLQ2 5:24524Punt0–10
CARQ2 2:3644Punt0–10
ATLQ2 1:01447End of half0–10
CARQ3 15:00513Punt0–10
ATLQ3 12:2422Opp touchdown0–17
ATLQ3 11:39635Turnover on downs0–17
CARQ3 9:24910Field goal0–20
ATLQ3 4:481149Turnover0–20
CARQ3 1:17930Touchdown0–27
ATLQ4 10:48834Turnover on downs0–27
CARQ4 8:02631Field goal0–30
ATLQ4 3:41746Turnover0–30
CARQ4 0:3000End of half0–30

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.18/3617202
Kirk Cousins5/72900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bijan Robinson13725.50
Nate Carter7466.60
Michael Penix Jr.294.50
Tyler Allgeier144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Drake London58550
Darnell Mooney411440
Kyle Pitts46390
Bijan Robinson56390
Ray-Ray McCloud25200
David Sills1290
Tyler Allgeier1200
Charlie Woerner11-50

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young16/2412100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard17734.30
Rico Dowdle10303.01
Bryce Young284.01
Andy Dalton1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tetairoa McMillan38480
Tommy Tremble22160
Brycen Tremayne22150
Ja'Tavion Sanders22110
Mitchell Evans1190
Rico Dowdle1180
Hunter Renfrow2460
David Moore1150
Chuba Hubbard2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.76
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.06