Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-1.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.036
- 45.4%Success rate40.8%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.062
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.005
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.4%
- -0.74CPOE-4.71
- 41.9%Third-down rate31.6%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
- 1.97Points / drive1.70
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 19/30 | 186 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 3 | 43 | 14.3 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damiere Byrd | 3 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Drake London | 5 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 2 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 2 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 3 | 3 | -17 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PJ Walker | 10/16 | 108 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 31 | 130 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 2 | 42 | 21.0 | 1 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| PJ Walker | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 2 | 43 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 4 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Shi Smith | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Giovanni Ricci | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-3.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.79