2022 · Week 10 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

15·25

Panthers

Carolina

QB Phillip Walker

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 61°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-1.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.036
  • 45.4%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.062
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.005
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -0.74CPOE-4.71
  • 41.9%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate59.6%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.70
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W8CAR @ ATL34–37ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:0069Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:21941Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 6:59933Punt0–3
CARQ1 2:391561Punt0–3
ATLQ2 7:4339Punt0–3
CARQ2 5:26243Touchdown0–10
ATLQ2 4:3420Turnover0–10
CARQ2 4:11614Field goal0–13
ATLQ2 1:47645Field goal3–13
CARQ3 15:0036Punt3–13
ATLQ3 14:13638Punt3–13
CARQ3 10:4637Punt3–13
ATLQ3 9:01731Touchdown9–13
CARQ3 6:15894Touchdown9–19
ATLQ3 1:51423Punt9–19
CARQ4 14:471054Field goal9–22
ATLQ4 9:22613Turnover on downs9–22
CARQ4 7:3230Punt9–22
ATLQ4 5:18897Touchdown15–22
CARQ4 2:5633Punt15–22
ATLQ4 2:334-15Turnover on downs15–22
CARQ4 1:50410Field goal15–25
ATLQ4 0:1018End of half15–25

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota19/3018621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota34314.30
Caleb Huntley5326.40
Avery Williams4256.30
Tyler Allgeier8202.50
Cordarrelle Patterson5183.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Damiere Byrd34580
Drake London56381
KhaDarel Hodge22371
Olamide Zaccheaus24340
Kyle Pitts28280
MyCole Pruitt1160
Cordarrelle Patterson1120
Tyler Allgeier33-170

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
PJ Walker10/1610800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman311304.21
Laviska Shenault Jr.24221.01
Raheem Blackshear6325.30
PJ Walker3144.70
Chuba Hubbard5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrace Marshall Jr.12430
DJ Moore46290
Laviska Shenault Jr.34170
Shi Smith11170
Giovanni Ricci1120
D'Onta Foreman0100
Tommy Tremble0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.3%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.79