Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
37
Model margin
+3.0est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:12 | 3 | -2 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 11:54 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 9:42 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 0–3 |
| MIA | Q1 8:44 | 10 | 62 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 4:53 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q1 1:53 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q1 0:00 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 12:36 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| LV | Q2 11:40 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 10:04 | 7 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 6:34 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q2 5:53 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 4:21 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–3 |
| MIA | Q2 1:50 | 7 | 29 | End of half | 10–3 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 79 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| MIA | Q3 10:56 | 7 | 64 | Field goal | 13–6 |
| LV | Q3 6:06 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 13–6 |
| MIA | Q3 5:55 | 3 | 0 | Missed field goal | 13–6 |
| LV | Q3 4:33 | 5 | 30 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| MIA | Q3 3:14 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 13–9 |
| LV | Q3 1:41 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 13–9 |
| MIA | Q4 14:43 | 16 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 13–9 |
| LV | Q4 6:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 13–9 |
| MIA | Q4 6:00 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 16–9 |
| LV | Q4 3:21 | 5 | 0 | Punt | 16–9 |
| MIA | Q4 1:49 | 5 | 10 | End of half | 16–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 16/32 | 221 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. Johnson | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Cecil Collins | 15 | 49 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Damon Huard | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oronde Gadsden | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| O.J. McDuffie | 2 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Tony Martin | 3 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Stanley Pritchett | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| J.J. Johnson | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Cecil Collins | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Troy Drayton | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.43
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.04
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.