Closing spread
LV -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+11.6est.
LV perspective
Push chance
6.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.242EPA / play-0.029
- 34.5%Success rate43.1%
- -0.183EPA / dropback+0.027
- -0.399EPA / rush-0.083
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -8.85CPOE+0.71
- 20.0%Third-down rate41.7%
- 33.3%Red-zone TD rate75.0%
- 1.18Points / drive2.44
- 3.6%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 15/27 | 220 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 1 |
| De'Von Achane | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Douglas | 5 | 7 | 94 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Chris Bell | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Will Kacmarek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 21/30 | 160 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 23 | 102 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 5 | -6 | -1.2 | 0 |
| Malik Benson | 1 | -8 | -8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 |
| Michael Mayer | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jack Bech | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Malik Benson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cody White | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
6.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.9%
Expected total
36.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+9.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.64