2026 · Week 1

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Malik Willis

13·27

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Kirk Cousins

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+3.1est.

LV perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Nothing filed.

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.049EPA / play+0.019
  • 39.8%Success rate43.1%
  • -0.005EPA / dropback+0.168
  • -0.107EPA / rush-0.252
  • 8.5%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -6.93CPOE-1.41
  • 40.9%Third-down rate40.6%
  • 58.0%Red-zone TD rate55.6%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.49
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 13–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W11LV @ MIA19–34MIA
2023 · W11LV @ MIA13–20MIA
2021 · W3MIA @ LV28–31RAIDERS
2020 · W16MIA @ LV26–25MIA
2018 · W3OAK @ MIA20–28MIA
2017 · W9OAK @ MIA27–24RAIDERS
2014 · W4MIA @ OAK38–14MIA
2012 · W2OAK @ MIA13–35MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LV
MIAQ1 15:00836Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:311693Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 1:3337Punt0–7
LVQ2 14:08823Field goal0–10
MIAQ2 10:221157Field goal3–10
LVQ2 4:08754Touchdown3–17
MIAQ2 1:07551Field goal6–17
LVQ3 15:0023Turnover6–17
MIAQ3 14:29457Touchdown13–17
LVQ3 12:44550Touchdown13–24
MIAQ3 9:5820Turnover13–24
LVQ3 9:411259Field goal13–27
MIAQ3 2:343-5Missed field goal13–27
LVQ3 0:0738Punt13–27
MIAQ4 14:0730Punt13–27
LVQ4 12:213-4Turnover13–27
MIAQ4 11:223-8Punt13–27
LVQ4 10:23610Punt13–27
MIAQ4 5:58732Turnover on downs13–27
LVQ4 3:5830Punt13–27
MIAQ4 3:29632Turnover13–27
LVQ4 1:5100End of half13–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis15/2722001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malik Willis6396.51
De'Von Achane11363.30
Jaylen Wright1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Caleb Douglas57940
Malik Washington38530
De'Von Achane45300
Chris Bell12250
Greg Dulcich22180
Will Kacmarek0100
Kevin Coleman Jr.0200

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins21/3016032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ashton Jeanty231024.40
Mike Washington Jr.7415.90
Kirk Cousins5-6-1.20
Malik Benson1-8-8.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ashton Jeanty66452
Michael Mayer67320
Jalen Nailor35270
Tre Tucker24270
Jack Bech34231
Malik Benson1260
Cody White0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.5%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.15