Closing spread
LV -4
Total
45
Model margin
+1.7est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play-0.001
- 41.8%Success rate45.2%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.180EPA / rush-0.161
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.2%
- -0.02CPOE+1.92
- 41.1%Third-down rate36.8%
- 61.3%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
- 1.58Points / drive1.87
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | 32/49 | 215 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 13 | 65 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 7 | 31 | 4.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Gesicki | 10 | 12 | 86 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 12 | 13 | 58 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Myles Gaskin | 3 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 26/43 | 386 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 23 | 111 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Edwards | 3 | 5 | 89 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 4 | 7 | 78 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5 | 6 | 77 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.72
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.67