2021 · Week 3

Final / OT

Dolphins

Miami

QB Jacoby Brissett

28·31

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

LV -4

Total

45

Model margin

+1.7est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRaiders
  • -0.046EPA / play-0.001
  • 41.8%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.028EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.180EPA / rush-0.161
  • 6.7%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -0.02CPOE+1.92
  • 41.1%Third-down rate36.8%
  • 61.3%Red-zone TD rate53.8%
  • 1.58Points / drive1.87
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 13–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1MIA @ LV13–27RAIDERS
2024 · W11LV @ MIA19–34MIA
2023 · W11LV @ MIA13–20MIA
2020 · W16MIA @ LV26–25MIA
2018 · W3OAK @ MIA20–28MIA
2017 · W9OAK @ MIA27–24RAIDERS
2014 · W4MIA @ OAK38–14MIA
2012 · W2OAK @ MIA13–35MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LV
LVQ1 15:003-4Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:26621Punt0–0
LVQ1 10:48764Opp touchdown7–0
LVQ1 6:3449Turnover on downs7–0
MIAQ1 4:49434Touchdown14–0
LVQ1 3:07843Punt14–2
MIAQ1 0:361-1Safety14–2
LVQ1 0:32831Field goal14–5
MIAQ2 11:36936Punt14–5
LVQ2 6:201075Touchdown14–12
MIAQ2 1:56941Missed field goal14–12
MIAQ3 15:00414Punt14–12
LVQ3 12:331067Touchdown14–19
MIAQ3 7:17612Punt14–19
LVQ3 4:521294Touchdown14–25
MIAQ4 13:471047Field goal17–25
LVQ4 8:3037Punt17–25
MIAQ4 6:59712Turnover on downs17–25
LVQ4 4:293-16Punt17–25
MIAQ4 3:221461Touchdown25–25
LVQ4 0:0200End of half25–25
LVOT755Field goal25–28
MIAOT1153Field goal28–28
LVOT674Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jacoby Brissett32/4921500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin13655.00
Jacoby Brissett7375.31
Malcolm Brown7314.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Gesicki1012860
Jaylen Waddle1213580
DeVante Parker47420
Will Fuller36200
Myles Gaskin3690
Malcolm Brown0200
Durham Smythe0100

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr26/4338621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber231114.81
Kenyan Drake8243.00
Henry Ruggs III177.00
Derek Carr2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Bryan Edwards35890
Henry Ruggs III47780
Hunter Renfrow56771
Darren Waller57540
Kenyan Drake36330
Peyton Barber35310
Zay Jones11150
Foster Moreau1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.75
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.72
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.67