Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
46
Model margin
-1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/23 | 289 | 3 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1/1 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 2 | 74 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 3 | 70 | 2 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.