Closing spread
MIA -3
Total
46
Model margin
-1.4est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutP.J. HallDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableNick NelsonCBHamstring· Limited
- LimitedGabe JacksonGPectoral
- LimitedMarshawn LynchRBShoulder
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
Dolphins
- QuestionableReshad JonesSShoulder· Limited
- LimitedWilliam HayesDEFinger
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:34 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:50 | 10 | 97 | Turnover on downs | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 6:52 | 7 | 31 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 2:15 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 1:58 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:04 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q2 13:42 | 4 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LV | Q2 12:11 | 15 | 58 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q2 3:34 | 8 | 52 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q2 0:52 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–7 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LV | Q3 12:42 | 15 | 72 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| MIA | Q3 2:58 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LV | Q3 0:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q4 15:00 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 17–14 |
| LV | Q4 12:22 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 17–14 |
| MIA | Q4 8:06 | 2 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LV | Q4 7:18 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 17–21 |
| MIA | Q4 2:54 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| LV | Q4 2:00 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 20–28 |
| MIA | Q4 0:20 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 17/23 | 289 | 3 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1/1 | 52 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 2 | 74 | 1 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 3 | 70 | 2 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 5 | 61 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| A.J. Derby | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Kenyan Drake | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.12
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.38
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.