2024 · Week 11

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Gardner Minshew

19·34

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

MIA -8

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.131EPA / play-0.040
  • 41.0%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.058EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.283EPA / rush-0.246
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -1.46CPOE+3.08
  • 34.2%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.92
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 13–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1MIA @ LV13–27RAIDERS
2023 · W11LV @ MIA13–20MIA
2021 · W3MIA @ LV28–31RAIDERS
2020 · W16MIA @ LV26–25MIA
2018 · W3OAK @ MIA20–28MIA
2017 · W9OAK @ MIA27–24RAIDERS
2014 · W4MIA @ OAK38–14MIA
2012 · W2OAK @ MIA13–35MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–MIA
MIAQ1 15:001550Touchdown0–7
LVQ1 6:471251Field goal3–7
MIAQ1 0:081552Field goal3–10
LVQ2 6:461566Field goal6–10
MIAQ2 0:45325End of half6–10
LVQ3 15:00510Punt6–10
MIAQ3 12:001597Touchdown6–17
LVQ3 4:13875Touchdown12–17
MIAQ3 1:211165Touchdown12–24
LVQ4 10:371580Touchdown19–24
MIAQ4 4:23561Touchdown19–31
LVQ4 3:1910Turnover19–31
MIAQ4 3:1233Field goal19–34
LVQ4 1:55846End of half19–34

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Gardner Minshew30/4328221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jakobi Meyers12020.00
Alexander Mattison5193.80
Zamir White591.80
Gardner Minshew273.50
Tre Tucker177.00
Ameer Abdullah111.00
Brock Bowers1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brock Bowers13161261
Alexander Mattison33500
DJ Turner33290
Jakobi Meyers46280
Tre Tucker34280
Ameer Abdullah33161
Michael Mayer1350
Ramel Keyton0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa28/3628830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane17734.31
Malik Washington177.00
Jaylen Wright540.80
Raheem Mostert3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jonnu Smith681012
Tyreek Hill78611
Jaylen Waddle23370
De'Von Achane44320
Julian Hill23280
Odell Beckham Jr.24130
Malik Washington33110
Durham Smythe1130
Jaylen Wright1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

42.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+3.68