Closing spread
MIA -8
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.131EPA / play-0.040
- 41.0%Success rate44.3%
- -0.058EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.283EPA / rush-0.246
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.3%
- -1.46CPOE+3.08
- 34.2%Third-down rate35.4%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.51Points / drive1.92
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner Minshew | 30/43 | 282 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakobi Meyers | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zamir White | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Brock Bowers | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | 13 | 16 | 126 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| DJ Turner | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 3 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Michael Mayer | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Ramel Keyton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28/36 | 288 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 17 | 73 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnu Smith | 6 | 8 | 101 | 2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 8 | 61 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.62
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+3.68