Closing spread
MIA -2
Total
50
Model margin
+0.0est.
LV perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.066
- 46.8%Success rate47.4%
- +0.115EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.067
- 7.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.23CPOE+2.18
- 38.5%Third-down rate45.5%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
- 1.99Points / drive2.49
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9/13 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 17/22 | 94 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 14 | 87 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 6 | 2 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myles Gaskin | 5 | 5 | 82 | 2 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 5 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Isaiah Ford | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Durham Smythe | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 21/34 | 336 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 13 | 69 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 5 | 6 | 155 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 5 | 6 | 112 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.03