2020 · Week 16

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

26·25

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

MIA -2

Total

50

Model margin

+0.0est.

LV perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapRaiders
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.066
  • 46.8%Success rate47.4%
  • +0.115EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.067
  • 7.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.23CPOE+2.18
  • 38.5%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate59.9%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.49
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 13–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. LV are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1MIA @ LV13–27RAIDERS
2024 · W11LV @ MIA19–34MIA
2023 · W11LV @ MIA13–20MIA
2021 · W3MIA @ LV28–31RAIDERS
2018 · W3OAK @ MIA20–28MIA
2017 · W9OAK @ MIA27–24RAIDERS
2014 · W4MIA @ OAK38–14MIA
2012 · W2OAK @ MIA13–35MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–LV
LVQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
MIAQ1 13:4232Punt0–0
LVQ1 11:21743Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 8:251261Field goal3–7
LVQ1 1:23633Punt3–7
MIAQ2 12:5535Punt3–7
LVQ2 11:171157Field goal3–10
MIAQ2 6:461054Field goal6–10
LVQ2 1:42750Field goal6–13
MIAQ2 0:1100End of half6–13
MIAQ3 15:00975Touchdown13–13
LVQ3 10:31521Turnover on downs13–13
MIAQ3 8:313-5Punt13–13
LVQ3 6:51780Field goal13–16
MIAQ3 2:303-1Punt13–16
LVQ3 0:53532Punt13–16
MIAQ4 13:3130Punt13–16
LVQ4 11:183-2Punt13–16
MIAQ4 9:471284Field goal16–16
LVQ4 4:01285Touchdown16–22
MIAQ4 3:37375Touchdown23–22
LVQ4 2:55620Field goal23–25
MIAQ4 0:19234Field goal26–25
LVQ4 0:0100Turnover26–25

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick9/1318210
Tua Tagovailoa17/229410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Myles Gaskin14876.20
Tua Tagovailoa3113.70
Lynn Bowden188.00
Salvon Ahmed620.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Myles Gaskin55822
Mike Gesicki47540
Jakeem Grant56430
Mack Hollins24420
Isaiah Ford45370
Lynn Bowden2380
Durham Smythe2260
Adam Shaheen1130
Salvon Ahmed1110

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr21/3433610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs13695.30
Jalen Richard2199.50
Devontae Booker6111.80
Henry Ruggs III177.00
Derek Carr2-2-1.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor561551
Darren Waller561120
Hunter Renfrow55340
Jason Witten25120
Bryan Edwards11110
Devontae Booker2280
Jalen Richard1140
Josh Jacobs0200
Henry Ruggs III0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -22.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.03