Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 34/42 | 311 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 6 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.