Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDavid AmersonCBFoot· DNP
- OutDemetrius McCrayCBKnee· DNP
- OutGareon ConleyCBShin· DNP
- QuestionableCory JamesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableJamize OlawaleRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableKarl JosephSGroin· Limited
- QuestionableMarquel LeeLBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableNicholas MorrowLBAnkle· Limited
Dolphins
- QuestionableAndre BranchDEGroin· Full
- QuestionableDeVante ParkerWRAnkle· Full
- QuestionableJay CutlerQBRibs· Full
- QuestionableJermon BushrodGHand· Full
- QuestionableWilliam HayesDEHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:31 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 3:02 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 1:12 | 11 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–6 |
| LV | Q2 10:37 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| MIA | Q2 10:36 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| MIA | Q2 9:53 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 3–6 |
| LV | Q2 7:28 | 8 | 111 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| MIA | Q2 3:26 | 7 | 29 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| LV | Q2 0:32 | 4 | 42 | Field goal | 13–9 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 13–9 |
| LV | Q3 12:47 | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 20–9 |
| MIA | Q3 9:23 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 20–16 |
| LV | Q3 6:34 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–16 |
| MIA | Q3 5:08 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 20–16 |
| LV | Q3 3:31 | 10 | 26 | Turnover | 20–16 |
| MIA | Q4 12:46 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 20–16 |
| LV | Q4 10:44 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 20–16 |
| MIA | Q4 9:31 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 20–16 |
| LV | Q4 7:21 | 7 | 54 | Touchdown | 27–16 |
| MIA | Q4 4:37 | 8 | 41 | Turnover on downs | 27–16 |
| LV | Q4 2:53 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 27–16 |
| MIA | Q4 1:54 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| LV | Q4 1:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 34/42 | 311 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenyan Drake | 9 | 69 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 7 | 14 | 2.0 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Thomas | 6 | 8 | 84 | 1 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 6 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 6 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 6 | 7 | 32 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.89
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.