2014 · Week 4

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

38·14

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIA -4

Total

41

Model margin

+3.1est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

2.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

MIA lead 13–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1MIA @ LV13–27RAIDERS
2024 · W11LV @ MIA19–34MIA
2023 · W11LV @ MIA13–20MIA
2021 · W3MIA @ LV28–31RAIDERS
2020 · W16MIA @ LV26–25MIA
2018 · W3OAK @ MIA20–28MIA
2017 · W9OAK @ MIA27–24RAIDERS
2012 · W2OAK @ MIA13–35MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–OAK
LVQ1 15:001074Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 9:38747Field goal3–7
LVQ1 6:25520Punt3–7
MIAQ1 3:03891Touchdown10–7
LVQ2 14:173-2Punt10–7
MIAQ2 12:50757Touchdown17–7
LVQ2 9:1531Punt17–7
LVQ2 7:24313Punt17–7
MIAQ2 5:56990Touchdown24–7
LVQ2 1:53726Punt24–7
MIAQ2 0:191-1End of half24–7
MIAQ3 15:001078Turnover24–7
LVQ3 10:3435Turnover24–7
MIAQ3 8:4123Touchdown31–7
LVQ3 8:13955Opp touchdown38–7
MIAQ3 3:5900Opp touchdown38–7
LVQ3 3:5900Turnover38–7
LVQ3 3:58315Turnover38–7
MIAQ3 2:3336Turnover38–7
LVQ3 1:3132Punt38–7
MIAQ3 0:07941Punt38–7
LVQ4 11:50990Touchdown38–14
MIAQ4 8:36513Punt38–14
LVQ4 4:56322Turnover38–14
MIAQ4 3:43511Turnover on downs38–14
LVQ4 2:254-4Turnover on downs38–14
MIAQ4 1:473-1End of half38–14

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3127821

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller12645.32
Daniel Thomas5357.00
Ryan Tannehill5357.00
Damien Williams6233.80
Orleans Darkwa420.50
Mike Wallace100.00
Matt Moore2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline67740
Jarvis Landry44380
Mike Wallace34351
Charles Clay24320
Rishard Matthews22270
Brandon Gibson24260
Daniel Thomas12250
Dion Sims12181
Lamar Miller2230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.12

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.