Closing spread
MIA -4
Total
41
Model margin
+3.1est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. OAK are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/31 | 278 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 12 | 64 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Daniel Thomas | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 5 | 35 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 6 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 3 | 4 | 35 | 1 |
| Charles Clay | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 18 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.12
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.