Closing spread
MIA -14
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.086EPA / play+0.095
- 41.5%Success rate47.3%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.151EPA / rush-0.009
- 5.9%Explosive rate11.5%
- -3.79CPOE+4.40
- 35.2%Third-down rate42.5%
- 56.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
- 1.66Points / drive2.34
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 13–5 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan O'Connell | 24/41 | 271 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 13 | 82 | 1 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Michael Mayer | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Tre Tucker | 2 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 28/39 | 325 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 22 | 86 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreek Hill | 10 | 11 | 146 | 1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 8 | 55 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 2 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 3 | 3 | 25 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| De'Von Achane | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.17