2023 · Week 11

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Aidan O'Connell

13·20

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

MIA -14

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapDolphins
  • -0.086EPA / play+0.095
  • 41.5%Success rate47.3%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.151EPA / rush-0.009
  • 5.9%Explosive rate11.5%
  • -3.79CPOE+4.40
  • 35.2%Third-down rate42.5%
  • 56.2%Red-zone TD rate70.6%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.34
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 13–5 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. MIA are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1MIA @ LV13–27RAIDERS
2024 · W11LV @ MIA19–34MIA
2021 · W3MIA @ LV28–31RAIDERS
2020 · W16MIA @ LV26–25MIA
2018 · W3OAK @ MIA20–28MIA
2017 · W9OAK @ MIA27–24RAIDERS
2014 · W4MIA @ OAK38–14MIA
2012 · W2OAK @ MIA13–35MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–MIA
LVQ1 15:00521Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:06313Turnover0–0
LVQ1 10:58724Field goal3–0
MIAQ1 6:41970Touchdown3–7
LVQ1 2:03475Touchdown10–7
MIAQ1 0:011262Turnover on downs10–7
LVQ2 9:0833Punt10–7
MIAQ2 7:31963Touchdown10–14
LVQ2 2:2837Punt10–14
MIAQ2 1:09220Turnover10–14
LVQ2 0:5833Field goal13–14
MIAQ2 0:05130End of half13–14
MIAQ3 15:0010Turnover13–14
LVQ3 14:5238Punt13–14
MIAQ3 12:37748Missed field goal13–14
LVQ3 8:2210Turnover13–14
MIAQ3 8:13630Field goal13–17
LVQ3 5:2639Punt13–17
MIAQ3 3:52752Field goal13–20
LVQ3 0:25610Punt13–20
MIAQ4 11:5936Punt13–20
LVQ4 10:55619Turnover on downs13–20
MIAQ4 8:26412Punt13–20
LVQ4 6:21863Turnover13–20
MIAQ4 3:04517Punt13–20
LVQ4 1:58954Turnover13–20
MIAQ4 0:2500End of half13–20

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aidan O'Connell24/4127113

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs14392.80
Aidan O'Connell133.00
Tre Tucker1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams713821
Jakobi Meyers45490
Michael Mayer45460
Hunter Renfrow55420
Tre Tucker27360
Josh Jacobs11120
Ameer Abdullah1140
Austin Hooper0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa28/3932521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert22863.90
Salvon Ahmed362.00
Tua Tagovailoa263.00
De'Von Achane111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyreek Hill10111461
Jaylen Waddle48550
Robbie Chosen22390
Salvon Ahmed33251
Cedrick Wilson Jr.34230
Julian Hill11100
Raheem Mostert1270
De'Von Achane1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.17