Closing spread
KC -6
Total
35
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 11/15 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 2 | 113 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mitch Jacoby | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.