Closing spread
KC -6
Total
35
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:15 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 11:41 | 3 | -9 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 10:11 | 4 | -11 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| KC | Q1 7:50 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 7:50 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q1 4:08 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 4:08 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q1 1:37 | 11 | 42 | Field goal | 0–13 |
| LAC | Q2 9:59 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 0–13 |
| KC | Q2 6:54 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q2 2:35 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–20 |
| KC | Q2 1:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 0–20 |
| KC | Q3 12:56 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 10:55 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–20 |
| KC | Q3 9:23 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–20 |
| LAC | Q3 7:18 | 7 | 44 | Punt | 0–20 |
| KC | Q3 4:51 | 3 | 88 | Touchdown | 0–27 |
| LAC | Q3 3:27 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–27 |
| KC | Q3 3:09 | 2 | 7 | Touchdown | 0–34 |
| LAC | Q3 2:58 | 12 | 70 | Turnover | 0–34 |
| KC | Q4 13:24 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–34 |
| LAC | Q4 9:48 | 14 | 71 | Turnover on downs | 0–34 |
| KC | Q4 4:59 | 5 | 23 | Punt | 0–34 |
| LAC | Q4 1:50 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 0–34 |
| KC | Q4 0:56 | 1 | 1 | End of half | 0–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elvis Grbac | 11/15 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Morris | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Mike Cloud | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Elvis Grbac | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Alexander | 2 | 2 | 113 | 1 |
| Kevin Lockett | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Joe Horn | 3 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Mike Cloud | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Mitch Jacoby | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Tony Gonzalez | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Bam Morris | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.09
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.