1999 · Week 8

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Jon Kitna

27·7

Packers

Green Bay

QB Brett Favre

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+3.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPackers
  • -0.070EPA / play-0.016
  • 39.0%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.010EPA / dropback+0.060
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.154
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.8%
  • 33.0%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 48.6%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.40Points / drive1.48
  • 3.0%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.019

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–GB
GBQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:33518Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:55513Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:4210Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 9:3638Punt0–0
GBQ1 8:10732Opp touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 4:4500Opp touchdown7–0
GBQ1 4:45416Punt7–0
SEAQ1 2:3731Punt7–0
GBQ1 1:4510Turnover7–0
SEAQ1 1:3533Punt7–0
GBQ2 14:5238Punt7–0
SEAQ2 13:4537Punt7–0
GBQ2 12:11485Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 10:06452Turnover7–7
GBQ2 8:3014Turnover7–7
SEAQ2 8:19652Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 5:391737Turnover14–7
SEAQ2 0:341-1End of half14–7
SEAQ3 15:001152Touchdown21–7
GBQ3 10:30945Punt21–7
SEAQ3 6:513-4Punt21–7
GBQ3 4:48926Turnover21–7
SEAQ3 0:0736Punt21–7
GBQ4 14:0545Turnover21–7
SEAQ4 13:18615Field goal24–7
GBQ4 11:1120Turnover24–7
SEAQ4 10:2534Field goal27–7
GBQ4 6:5030Punt27–7
SEAQ4 6:0239Punt27–7
GBQ4 3:40532Turnover on downs27–7
SEAQ4 1:4521End of half27–7

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna12/1910920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Watters311254.00
Jon Kitna331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mayes47361
Sean Dawkins35231
Ricky Watters11210
Christian Fauria22110
Mike Pritchard12110
Itula Mili1170

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre14/3518014
Matt Hasselbeck2/63200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dorsey Levens241044.30
Brett Favre3165.30
Basil Mitchell252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Bradford391061
Dorsey Levens34220
Bill Schroeder37210
Lamont Hall11130
Tyrone Davis17100
Antonio Freeman26100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.89