Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.070EPA / play-0.016
- 39.0%Success rate40.8%
- +0.010EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.154
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.8%
- 33.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.40Points / drive1.48
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.076EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 12/19 | 109 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Watters | 31 | 125 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mayes | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Sean Dawkins | 3 | 5 | 23 | 1 |
| Ricky Watters | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Christian Fauria | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Pritchard | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Itula Mili | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/35 | 180 | 1 | 4 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2/6 | 32 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 24 | 104 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Basil Mitchell | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 9 | 106 | 1 |
| Dorsey Levens | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Lamont Hall | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 2 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.89