Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
49
Model margin
+3.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.093
- 45.9%Success rate44.2%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.208
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.027
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- -1.39CPOE+7.30
- 36.5%Third-down rate38.7%
- 62.4%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
- 2.05Points / drive2.23
- 0.9%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 21/30 | 332 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 10 | 12 | 166 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 6 | 63 | 1 |
| Robert Tonyan | 1 | 1 | 54 | 1 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/31 | 225 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Carson | 17 | 83 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Rashaad Penny | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 71 | 0 |
| David Moore | 4 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 1 | 1 | -11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.2%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.77