2018 · Week 11

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·27

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 54°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

49

Model margin

+3.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.093
  • 45.9%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.208
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.027
  • 9.3%Explosive rate11.2%
  • -1.39CPOE+7.30
  • 36.5%Third-down rate38.7%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate72.8%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.23
  • 0.9%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA
2014 · W1GB @ SEA16–36SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SEA
SEAQ1 15:0012Turnover0–0
GBQ1 14:53329Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 13:4632Punt7–0
GBQ1 12:54448Missed field goal7–0
SEAQ1 10:46852Field goal7–3
GBQ1 6:00675Touchdown14–3
SEAQ1 3:1033Punt14–3
GBQ1 1:3435Punt14–3
SEAQ1 0:341485Touchdown14–10
GBQ2 8:03513Punt14–10
SEAQ2 4:47422Touchdown14–17
GBQ2 3:22575Touchdown21–17
SEAQ2 0:44546End of half21–17
GBQ3 15:00737Punt21–17
SEAQ3 11:343-3Punt21–17
GBQ3 9:503-5Punt21–17
SEAQ3 8:133-4Punt21–17
GBQ3 6:36417Punt21–17
SEAQ3 3:441277Field goal21–20
GBQ4 12:14657Field goal24–20
SEAQ4 8:23775Touchdown24–27
GBQ4 5:0838Punt24–27
SEAQ4 4:11424End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers21/3033220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones11403.61
Jamaal Williams155.00
Aaron Rodgers133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams10121660
Aaron Jones56631
Robert Tonyan11541
Equanimeous St. Brown14160
Jimmy Graham11130
Lance Kendricks22120
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1380

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/3122520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Carson17834.91
Rashaad Penny8465.80
Mike Davis4266.50
Russell Wilson5173.40
Tyler Lockett111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett55710
David Moore48570
Doug Baldwin710521
Mike Davis22240
Nick Vannett12170
Ed Dickson11151
Russell Wilson11-110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.51%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.2%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.77