Closing spread
SEA -8.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play+0.091
- 47.1%Success rate44.0%
- +0.317EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.133EPA / rush+0.030
- 11.3%Explosive rate11.7%
- +2.68CPOE+4.40
- 47.1%Third-down rate43.4%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 2.59Points / drive2.06
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/34 | 178 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 5 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 7 | 10 | 62 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/29 | 209 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 25 | 157 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.50