2014 · CON

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

22·28

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

SEA -8.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.142EPA / play+0.091
  • 47.1%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.133EPA / rush+0.030
  • 11.3%Explosive rate11.7%
  • +2.68CPOE+4.40
  • 47.1%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 2.59Points / drive2.06
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · W1GB @ SEA16–36SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SEA
GBQ1 15:001041Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 11:1633Turnover0–0
GBQ1 10:28418Field goal3–0
SEAQ1 8:0700Field goal3–0
GBQ1 8:01522Field goal6–0
SEAQ1 5:0730Punt6–0
GBQ1 3:39756Touchdown13–0
SEAQ2 15:0038Punt13–0
GBQ2 13:1876Field goal16–0
SEAQ2 9:3710Turnover16–0
GBQ2 9:18323Turnover16–0
SEAQ2 8:211251Turnover16–0
GBQ2 1:55512Punt16–0
SEAQ2 0:352-3End of half16–0
SEAQ3 15:0039Punt16–0
GBQ3 13:0539Punt16–0
SEAQ3 10:531183Touchdown16–7
GBQ3 4:4447Punt16–7
SEAQ3 2:2234Punt16–7
GBQ3 0:55962Field goal19–7
SEAQ4 10:531037Punt19–7
GBQ4 6:5336Punt19–7
SEAQ4 5:1310Turnover19–7
GBQ4 5:043-4Punt19–7
SEAQ4 3:52769Touchdown19–14
GBQ4 2:0900Touchdown19–14
SEAQ4 2:07450Touchdown19–22
GBQ4 1:25648Field goal22–22
SEAQ4 0:1400End of half22–22
SEAOT687Touchdown22–28

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/3417812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy21733.50
James Starks5448.80
Aaron Rodgers11212.00
Randall Cobb133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson58710
Randall Cobb710621
Richard Rodgers45350
Davante Adams1370
Andrew Quarless0100
James Starks1300
Eddie Lacy0300

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2920914

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch251576.31
Russell Wilson7253.61
Robert Turbin284.00
Ricardo Lockette144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin691060
Jermaine Kearse16351
Marshawn Lynch13260
Ricardo Lockette22250
Luke Willson25110
Kevin Norwood0100
Robert Turbin11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

1.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.50