2024 · Week 15

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

30·13

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Geno Smith

Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

48

Model margin

-0.7est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.013
  • 44.8%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.044
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.126
  • 11.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +1.37CPOE+4.61
  • 37.6%Third-down rate37.5%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.82
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA
2014 · W1GB @ SEA16–36SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–SEA
GBQ1 15:001048Touchdown7–0
SEAQ1 9:19412Punt7–0
GBQ1 6:43880Touchdown14–0
SEAQ1 1:54750Field goal14–3
GBQ2 12:59751Field goal17–3
SEAQ2 9:211353Turnover17–3
GBQ2 2:54856Field goal20–3
SEAQ3 15:00929Punt20–3
GBQ3 10:2636Punt20–3
SEAQ3 7:46420Field goal20–6
GBQ3 6:20731Field goal23–6
SEAQ3 1:363-6Punt23–6
GBQ4 14:5037Punt23–6
SEAQ4 13:1830Punt23–6
GBQ4 13:0026Turnover23–6
SEAQ4 12:44545Touchdown23–13
GBQ4 11:1634Punt23–13
SEAQ4 10:0435Punt23–13
GBQ4 9:32745Turnover on downs23–13
SEAQ4 5:502-6Turnover23–13
GBQ4 5:17327Touchdown30–13
SEAQ4 4:593-4Punt30–13
GBQ4 3:1838Punt30–13
SEAQ4 1:46310End of half30–13

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love20/2722920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs26943.61
Jayden Reed3279.00
Emanuel Wilson393.00
Chris Brooks166.00
Jordan Love144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson36560
Josh Jacobs44420
Romeo Doubs35402
Tucker Kraft22340
Jayden Reed56340
Dontayvion Wicks22140
Chris Brooks1190

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith15/1914901
Sam Howell5/142401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Charbonnet8546.81
George Holani3103.30
Kenny McIntosh393.00
Geno Smith155.00
Sam Howell122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaxon Smith-Njigba1012830
DK Metcalf33280
Tyler Lockett11220
Noah Fant37150
Zach Charbonnet14120
Jake Bobo1180
AJ Barner1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.74