Closing spread
GB -3
Total
48
Model margin
-0.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.013
- 44.8%Success rate44.4%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.044
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.126
- 11.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +1.37CPOE+4.61
- 37.6%Third-down rate37.5%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate66.6%
- 2.38Points / drive1.82
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. SEA are 4-12-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 20/27 | 229 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 26 | 94 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 3 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 3 | 5 | 40 | 2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 15/19 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
| Sam Howell | 5/14 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Charbonnet | 8 | 54 | 6.8 | 1 |
| George Holani | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kenny McIntosh | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sam Howell | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 10 | 12 | 83 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jake Bobo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| AJ Barner | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.74