Closing spread
GB -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.136
- 43.8%Success rate48.9%
- +0.053EPA / dropback+0.222
- +0.026EPA / rush-0.003
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.08CPOE+4.71
- 37.3%Third-down rate43.8%
- 69.7%Red-zone TD rate61.0%
- 2.12Points / drive2.45
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/40 | 161 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Collins | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Everett | 8 | 8 | 63 | 0 |
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 8 | 26 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 8 | 23 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Will Dissly | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Penny Hart | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Freddie Swain | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dee Eskridge | 1 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/37 | 292 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Dillon | 21 | 66 | 3.1 | 2 |
| Aaron Jones | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Patrick Taylor | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 78 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 2 | 62 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Josiah Deguara | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Tyler Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.17