Closing spread
GB -3.5
Total
49
Model margin
-0.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play+0.002
- 47.1%Success rate42.3%
- +0.255EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.134
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- +7.64CPOE-0.77
- 47.8%Third-down rate33.6%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 2.18Points / drive1.72
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 19/30 | 206 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 78 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 15 | 41 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 8 | 92 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 25/33 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Starks | 20 | 95 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 8 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 |
| Davante Adams | 5 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 3 | 29 | 1 |
| Richard Rodgers | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| James Starks | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.54