2015 · Week 2

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

17·27

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

GB -3.5

Total

49

Model margin

-0.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPackers
  • +0.105EPA / play+0.002
  • 47.1%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.134
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +7.64CPOE-0.77
  • 47.8%Third-down rate33.6%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.72
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA
2014 · W1GB @ SEA16–36SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–GB
GBQ1 15:001290Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 10:453-5Punt0–7
GBQ1 8:4737Field goal0–10
SEAQ1 6:52851Field goal3–10
GBQ1 3:13518Punt3–10
SEAQ1 0:37523Punt3–10
GBQ2 12:27636Turnover3–10
SEAQ2 9:05517Punt3–10
GBQ2 6:12622Punt3–10
SEAQ2 2:48418Punt3–10
GBQ2 1:16627Field goal3–13
SEAQ2 0:0200End of half3–13
SEAQ3 15:001175Touchdown10–13
GBQ3 9:573-6Punt10–13
SEAQ3 8:33554Touchdown17–13
GBQ3 6:48754Field goal17–16
SEAQ3 3:12719Punt17–16
GBQ3 0:441180Touchdown17–24
SEAQ4 9:28524Turnover17–24
GBQ4 6:50834Field goal17–27
SEAQ4 1:56548Turnover17–27
GBQ4 0:2200End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson19/3020621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson10787.80
Marshawn Lynch15412.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin78921
Luke Willson24360
Marshawn Lynch36210
Tyler Lockett22170
Fred Jackson22161
Chris Matthews12130
Jimmy Graham12110
Jermaine Kearse0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers25/3324920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Starks20954.80
Aaron Rodgers6233.80
Eddie Lacy393.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb8111160
Ty Montgomery44370
Davante Adams55330
James Jones13291
Richard Rodgers34231
James Starks44110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.6%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.03
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.54