Closing spread
SEA -3
Total
47
Model margin
+1.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.022EPA / play+0.127
- 44.0%Success rate45.9%
- +0.102EPA / dropback+0.243
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.138
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.81CPOE+2.71
- 38.7%Third-down rate47.4%
- 41.8%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.88Points / drive2.39
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 22/39 | 240 | 1 | 5 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Rawls | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Alex Collins | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 6 | 11 | 46 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 3 | 3 | 41 | 1 |
| Alex Collins | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Troymaine Pope | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/23 | 246 | 3 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Christine Michael | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeff Janis | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| James Starks | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 4 | 6 | 104 | 1 |
| Ty Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 6 | 7 | 41 | 2 |
| Randall Cobb | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.40