2016 · Week 14

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

10·38

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 26°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

SEA -3

Total

47

Model margin

+1.4est.

GB perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPackers
  • +0.022EPA / play+0.127
  • 44.0%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.102EPA / dropback+0.243
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.138
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +4.81CPOE+2.71
  • 38.7%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 41.8%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.39
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA
2014 · W1GB @ SEA16–36SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–GB
GBQ1 15:00375Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 13:301264Field goal3–7
GBQ1 6:16835Missed field goal3–7
SEAQ1 2:0539Punt3–7
GBQ1 0:27537Punt3–7
SEAQ2 13:0823Turnover3–7
GBQ2 11:53426Touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 9:363-9Punt3–14
GBQ2 7:59548Touchdown3–21
SEAQ2 5:15731Punt3–21
GBQ2 2:27634Punt3–21
SEAQ2 1:14545Turnover3–21
GBQ2 0:2200End of half3–21
SEAQ3 15:00846Turnover3–21
GBQ3 11:0440Punt3–21
SEAQ3 8:5332Turnover3–21
GBQ3 7:40729Touchdown3–28
SEAQ3 4:2438Punt3–28
GBQ3 2:25519Punt3–28
SEAQ4 14:04721Turnover on downs3–28
GBQ4 11:4644Field goal3–31
SEAQ4 10:31775Touchdown10–31
GBQ4 8:2147Turnover on downs10–31
SEAQ4 6:0010Turnover10–37
GBQ4 5:50119Touchdown10–38
SEAQ4 5:431059Turnover10–38
GBQ4 1:0300End of half10–38

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson22/3924015

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Thomas Rawls12675.60
Alex Collins7233.30
Russell Wilson4194.80
Tyler Lockett2157.50
Troymaine Pope11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin611460
Tyler Lockett46410
Tanner McEvoy33411
Alex Collins33330
Jimmy Graham14160
Luke Willson11110
Jermaine Kearse1670
Thomas Rawls1270
Troymaine Pope0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers18/2324630
Brett Hundley0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery9414.61
Christine Michael10363.60
Jeff Janis11919.01
James Starks231.50
Brett Hundley2-2-1.00
Aaron Rodgers3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams461041
Ty Montgomery34450
Jordy Nelson67412
Randall Cobb33330
Jared Cook12150
Richard Rodgers1280

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.40