2019 · DIV

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

23·28

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 23°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -4.5

Total

46

Model margin

+4.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPackers
  • +0.018EPA / play+0.059
  • 45.5%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.119EPA / dropback+0.124
  • -0.134EPA / rush-0.062
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +7.05CPOE+0.96
  • 39.1%Third-down rate37.9%
  • 65.9%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
  • 1.86Points / drive2.12
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2017 · W1SEA @ GB9–17GB
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA
2014 · W1GB @ SEA16–36SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–GB
GBQ1 15:00875Touchdown0–7
SEAQ1 10:37411Punt0–7
GBQ1 8:0331Punt0–7
SEAQ1 6:5739Punt0–7
GBQ1 4:50417Punt0–7
SEAQ1 2:06532Field goal3–7
GBQ1 0:281262Touchdown3–14
SEAQ2 9:49750Missed field goal3–14
GBQ2 5:431146Touchdown3–21
SEAQ2 1:30533End of half3–21
SEAQ3 15:001069Touchdown10–21
GBQ3 9:44575Touchdown10–28
SEAQ3 7:091279Touchdown17–28
GBQ3 0:3936Punt17–28
SEAQ4 14:01979Touchdown23–28
GBQ4 9:33820Punt23–28
SEAQ4 4:54413Punt23–28
GBQ4 2:32644End of half23–28

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/3127710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson7649.10
Marshawn Lynch12262.22
Travis Homer3134.30
David Moore166.00
Luke Willson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett9101361
DK Metcalf45590
Jacob Hollister56470
Travis Homer23270
Luke Willson1180
Malik Turner0300

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers16/2724320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones21623.02
Tyler Ervin22512.50
Aaron Rodgers5142.80
Allen Lazard155.00
Jamaal Williams133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams8111602
Jimmy Graham34490
Geronimo Allison11110
Jamaal Williams1190
Marquez Valdes-Scantling1180
Aaron Jones1240
Jace Sternberger1120
Jake Kumerow0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.49