Closing spread
GB -4.5
Total
46
Model margin
+4.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.018EPA / play+0.059
- 45.5%Success rate43.9%
- +0.119EPA / dropback+0.124
- -0.134EPA / rush-0.062
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +7.05CPOE+0.96
- 39.1%Third-down rate37.9%
- 65.9%Red-zone TD rate69.9%
- 1.86Points / drive2.12
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/31 | 277 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 64 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 2 |
| Travis Homer | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 9 | 10 | 136 | 1 |
| DK Metcalf | 4 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Jacob Hollister | 5 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Travis Homer | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Malik Turner | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 16/27 | 243 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 21 | 62 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Tyler Ervin | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Allen Lazard | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 8 | 11 | 160 | 2 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Geronimo Allison | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Jace Sternberger | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jake Kumerow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.19
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.49