2017 · Week 1

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

9·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapPackers
  • -0.023EPA / play-0.023
  • 41.3%Success rate45.2%
  • +0.060EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.192EPA / rush-0.032
  • 9.4%Explosive rate6.2%
  • +4.52CPOE-1.27
  • 37.4%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.68Points / drive1.77
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–6 since 1999

GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W15GB @ SEA30–13GB
2021 · W10SEA @ GB0–17GB
2019 · playoffsSEA @ GB23–28GB
2018 · W11GB @ SEA24–27SEA
2016 · W14SEA @ GB10–38GB
2015 · W2SEA @ GB17–27GB
2014 · playoffsGB @ SEA22–28SEA
2014 · W1GB @ SEA16–36SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–GB
SEAQ1 15:003-9Punt0–0
GBQ1 13:26866Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 9:2638Punt0–0
GBQ1 7:531132Punt0–0
SEAQ1 1:3434Punt0–0
GBQ2 14:48723Punt0–0
SEAQ2 11:13623Punt0–0
GBQ2 8:4933Punt0–0
SEAQ2 7:123-1Punt0–0
GBQ2 5:38928Punt0–0
SEAQ2 0:55774Field goal3–0
GBQ3 15:00721Punt3–0
SEAQ3 12:043-15Turnover3–6
GBQ3 10:3916Touchdown3–7
SEAQ3 10:331171Field goal6–7
GBQ3 4:201085Touchdown6–14
SEAQ3 0:17418Punt6–14
GBQ4 13:381153Field goal6–17
SEAQ4 8:01652Field goal9–17
GBQ4 6:171256End of half9–17

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson14/2715800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson24020.00
Chris Carson6396.50
C.J. Prosise4112.80
Eddie Lacy530.60
Doug Baldwin1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Doug Baldwin44630
Paul Richardson47590
Nick Vannett11100
Chris Carson11100
Jimmy Graham3880
Tyler Lockett1380
Luke Willson0100
Tanner McEvoy0100
Amara Darboh0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers28/4231111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ty Montgomery19542.81
Aaron Rodgers7213.00
Jamaal Williams294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb913850
Jordy Nelson78791
Davante Adams37470
Martellus Bennett36430
Ty Montgomery44390
Lance Kendricks24180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.7%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.40
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.52