Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play-0.023
- 41.3%Success rate45.2%
- +0.060EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.192EPA / rush-0.032
- 9.4%Explosive rate6.2%
- +4.52CPOE-1.27
- 37.4%Third-down rate39.5%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.68Points / drive1.77
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 14/27 | 158 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Baldwin | 4 | 4 | 63 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 4 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Carson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanner McEvoy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Amara Darboh | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 28/42 | 311 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Montgomery | 19 | 54 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 9 | 13 | 85 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 7 | 8 | 79 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Ty Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Lance Kendricks | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+5.40
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.52