1999 · Week 8 · Division
Final
Pontiac Silverdome · dome · astroturf
Closing spread
TB -2.5
Total
35
Model margin
+0.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.149EPA / play-0.057
- 35.1%Success rate38.8%
- -0.110EPA / dropback+0.024
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.222
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- 35.3%Third-down rate35.5%
- 37.2%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.03Points / drive1.19
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.0%
- -0.164EPA / play allowed-0.055
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–DET |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 13:11 | 5 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:58 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TB | Q1 8:23 | 10 | 50 | Missed field goal | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 3:03 | 9 | 44 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| TB | Q2 12:59 | 7 | 49 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| DET | Q2 8:02 | 4 | 34 | Punt | 3–3 |
| TB | Q2 6:32 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DET | Q2 4:57 | 3 | 29 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 3:52 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–10 |
| DET | Q2 2:50 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–10 |
| TB | Q2 0:22 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 2 | 1 | Opp touchdown | 3–17 |
| DET | Q3 14:01 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 14:01 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 3–17 |
| DET | Q3 9:53 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TB | Q3 5:25 | 10 | 53 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| DET | Q4 14:53 | 7 | 57 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| TB | Q4 11:34 | 9 | 17 | Turnover on downs | 3–20 |
| DET | Q4 9:11 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 3–20 |
| TB | Q4 5:54 | 17 | 66 | Turnover on downs | 3–20 |
| DET | Q4 0:54 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Zeier | 29/43 | 256 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Eric Zeier | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacquez Green | 7 | 12 | 96 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 11 | 12 | 77 | 0 |
| Yo Murphy | 4 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Reidel Anthony | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Darnell McDonald | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Rabih Abdullah | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Patrick Hape | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Dave Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 10/19 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Hill | 16 | 123 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnnie Morton | 3 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| David Sloan | 2 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Sedrick Irvin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Germane Crowell | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Brian Stablein | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Greg Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
42.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.84
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.05