2019 · Week 15

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

38·17

Lions

Detroit

QB David Blough

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

TB -5.5

Total

46

Model margin

-9.1est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapLions
  • +0.000EPA / play-0.039
  • 43.6%Success rate41.5%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback+0.049
  • -0.168EPA / rush-0.193
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
  • +0.42CPOE-3.54
  • 42.2%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 71.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
  • 1.86Points / drive1.73
  • 3.6%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET
2013 · W12TB @ DET24–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DET
TBQ1 15:00533Turnover0–0
DETQ1 12:363-3Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:44879Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 7:2547Punt7–0
TBQ1 5:34599Touchdown14–0
DETQ1 3:423-3Punt14–0
TBQ1 1:36531Punt14–0
DETQ2 14:1531Punt14–0
TBQ2 12:40972Touchdown21–0
DETQ2 8:131049Field goal21–3
TBQ2 3:1766Punt21–3
DETQ2 1:1435Punt21–3
TBQ2 0:31516End of half21–3
DETQ3 15:00525Turnover21–3
TBQ3 13:01439Field goal24–3
DETQ3 11:321180Touchdown24–10
TBQ3 6:45822Punt24–10
DETQ3 2:54787Touchdown24–17
TBQ4 14:571153Missed field goal24–17
DETQ4 7:59521Opp touchdown31–17
DETQ4 5:12616Turnover on downs31–17
TBQ4 4:04546Touchdown38–17
DETQ4 2:59311Turnover38–17
TBQ4 2:3400Turnover on downs38–17
DETQ4 0:3500End of half38–17

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston28/4245841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ronald Jones11232.10
Peyton Barber10171.70
Jameis Winston242.00
Breshad Perriman133.00
Dare Ogunbowale133.00
Ryan Griffin4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.581210
Breshad Perriman561133
Scott Miller33491
O.J. Howard47460
Cameron Brate37330
Ronald Jones13260
Peyton Barber22230
Justin Watson22170
Tanner Hudson11140
Dare Ogunbowale11130
Ishmael Hyman1130

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Blough24/4326002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Wes Hills10212.12
David Blough5193.80
Ty Johnson231.50
J.D. McKissic122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola8131020
Chris Lacy12480
Kenny Golladay37440
Jesse James35310
Ty Johnson45170
Isaac Nauta12100
J.D. McKissic2370
Wes Hills2210
Logan Thomas0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%3.5%3.5%4.9%3.1%6.9%5.2%2.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

26.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.61
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-7.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-9.14