2019 · Week 15
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -5.5
Total
46
Model margin
-9.1est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play-0.039
- 43.6%Success rate41.5%
- +0.084EPA / dropback+0.049
- -0.168EPA / rush-0.193
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +0.42CPOE-3.54
- 42.2%Third-down rate41.4%
- 71.0%Red-zone TD rate68.1%
- 1.86Points / drive1.73
- 3.6%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 28/42 | 458 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Jones | 11 | 23 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 10 | 17 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 8 | 121 | 0 |
| Breshad Perriman | 5 | 6 | 113 | 3 |
| Scott Miller | 3 | 3 | 49 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 3 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Ronald Jones | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Justin Watson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ishmael Hyman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Blough | 24/43 | 260 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wes Hills | 10 | 21 | 2.1 | 2 |
| David Blough | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 8 | 13 | 102 | 0 |
| Chris Lacy | 1 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Isaac Nauta | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Wes Hills | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
26.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-7.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-9.14