2014 · Week 14
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -10.5
Total
42
Model margin
+5.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.111EPA / play-0.006
- 38.5%Success rate41.8%
- -0.069EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.159
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.1%
- -1.50CPOE-4.76
- 36.6%Third-down rate38.3%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.33Points / drive1.79
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 20/39 | 250 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Josh McCown | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 10 | 17 | 159 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 11 | 45 | 2 |
| Charles Sims | 1 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 26/34 | 311 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 18 | 83 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 8 | 26 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| George Winn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 8 | 9 | 158 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 5 | 5 | 50 | 1 |
| Golden Tate | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Joseph Fauria | 2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy Ross | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.2%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.72