2014 · Week 14

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh McCown

17·34

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -10.5

Total

42

Model margin

+5.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapLions
  • -0.111EPA / play-0.006
  • 38.5%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.069EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.159
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.1%
  • -1.50CPOE-4.76
  • 36.6%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.33Points / drive1.79
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2013 · W12TB @ DET24–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DET
DETQ1 15:001156Turnover on downs0–0
TBQ1 9:0833Punt0–0
DETQ1 8:081170Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 2:571144Field goal3–7
DETQ2 13:3239Punt3–7
TBQ2 11:2830Turnover3–7
DETQ2 10:01829Touchdown3–14
TBQ2 6:01315Turnover3–14
DETQ2 5:0434Field goal3–17
TBQ2 3:01663Turnover3–17
TBQ2 1:3544Touchdown10–17
DETQ2 0:0500End of half10–17
TBQ3 15:004-3Punt10–17
DETQ3 12:55456Field goal10–20
TBQ3 11:1433Punt10–20
DETQ3 10:1437Punt10–20
TBQ3 7:49419Punt10–20
DETQ3 5:421088Touchdown10–27
TBQ3 0:15757Touchdown17–27
DETQ4 12:523-6Punt17–27
TBQ4 10:395-4Punt17–27
TBQ4 9:0112Punt17–27
TBQ4 8:1715Punt17–27
DETQ4 7:55692Touchdown17–34
TBQ4 5:013-15Punt17–34
DETQ4 3:3044Turnover on downs17–34
TBQ4 2:23640Turnover on downs17–34
DETQ4 1:3300End of half17–34

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh McCown20/3925022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin5224.40
Josh McCown482.00
Charles Sims5-4-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson10171590
Mike Evans411452
Charles Sims12240
Louis Murphy34180
Luke Stocker1340
Doug Martin1100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford26/3431130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell18834.61
Reggie Bush8263.30
Jeremy Ross144.00
George Winn122.00
Matthew Stafford3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson891581
Joique Bell55501
Golden Tate45500
Eric Ebron34280
Joseph Fauria22171
Reggie Bush4680
Jeremy Ross0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.59%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.2%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.72