2023 · DIV
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -6
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.058
- 40.5%Success rate45.9%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.014
- 8.6%Explosive rate11.2%
- +0.25CPOE+1.34
- 42.2%Third-down rate42.4%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.86Points / drive2.29
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 26/41 | 349 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 8 | 12 | 147 | 1 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 8 | 65 | 1 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 4 | 8 | 40 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| David Moore | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 30/43 | 287 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 9 | 74 | 8.2 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 14 | 77 | 1 |
| Sam LaPorta | 9 | 11 | 65 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 3 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.93