2017 · Week 14

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

24·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PK

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

TB perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapBuccaneers
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.004
  • 40.8%Success rate44.2%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.090
  • -0.278EPA / rush-0.167
  • 8.7%Explosive rate6.5%
  • +0.41CPOE+3.38
  • 38.4%Third-down rate42.9%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.79
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET
2013 · W12TB @ DET24–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–TB
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
TBQ1 13:0438Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:09774Touchdown7–0
TBQ1 8:051175Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 2:51111Turnover7–7
TBQ1 2:35236Turnover7–7
DETQ1 1:531054Punt7–7
TBQ2 12:24413Turnover7–7
DETQ2 10:57756Touchdown14–7
TBQ2 7:36857Turnover14–7
DETQ2 3:31427Turnover14–7
TBQ2 1:51616Punt14–7
DETQ2 0:36430Turnover14–7
TBQ2 0:1400End of half14–7
TBQ3 15:00736Turnover14–7
DETQ3 11:46414Punt14–7
TBQ3 9:26632Turnover14–7
DETQ3 6:10746Touchdown21–7
TBQ3 3:111075Touchdown21–14
DETQ4 13:41627Punt21–14
TBQ4 10:11732Touchdown21–21
DETQ4 8:05732Punt21–21
TBQ4 4:49522Punt21–21
DETQ4 2:54854Field goal24–21
TBQ4 0:201-1End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford36/4438112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Theo Riddick10292.92
Tion Green5153.00
Kenny Golladay199.00
Zach Zenner200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron1011940
Golden Tate89851
Marvin Jones34640
Theo Riddick610640
T.J. Jones33260
Darren Fells11230
Kenny Golladay34170
Michael Roberts2280

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston26/3828522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Barber12584.80
Doug Martin10262.61
DeSean Jackson12323.00
Charles Sims3165.30
Jameis Winston2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.56680
O.J. Howard46541
DeSean Jackson47410
Mike Evans25250
Adam Humphries33250
Doug Martin23240
Freddie Martino11190
Cameron Brate11110
Charles Sims23110
Peyton Barber1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line 04.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.95