2017 · Week 14
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 55°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
PK
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
TB perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.004
- 40.8%Success rate44.2%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.090
- -0.278EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.7%Explosive rate6.5%
- +0.41CPOE+3.38
- 38.4%Third-down rate42.9%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate57.7%
- 1.78Points / drive1.79
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 36/44 | 381 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Theo Riddick | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Tion Green | 5 | 15 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 10 | 11 | 94 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 8 | 9 | 85 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 6 | 10 | 64 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Michael Roberts | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 26/38 | 285 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Barber | 12 | 58 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 10 | 26 | 2.6 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 6 | 68 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 4 | 6 | 54 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 2 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Freddie Martino | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Peyton Barber | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.95