2024 · Week 2
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -7.5
Total
51.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.133EPA / play+0.156
- 49.4%Success rate49.6%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.267
- +0.012EPA / rush+0.021
- 10.2%Explosive rate11.5%
- +3.56CPOE+5.81
- 50.8%Third-down rate48.1%
- 71.2%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
- 2.71Points / drive3.02
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/19 | 185 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Bucky Irving | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 7 | 8 | 117 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jalen McMillan | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 34/55 | 307 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 13 | 84 | 6.5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 11 | 18 | 119 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 5 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 7 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.88