2024 · Week 2

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

20·16

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7.5

Total

51.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapLions
  • +0.133EPA / play+0.156
  • 49.4%Success rate49.6%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.267
  • +0.012EPA / rush+0.021
  • 10.2%Explosive rate11.5%
  • +3.56CPOE+5.81
  • 50.8%Third-down rate48.1%
  • 71.2%Red-zone TD rate74.9%
  • 2.71Points / drive3.02
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET
2013 · W12TB @ DET24–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DET
TBQ1 15:00717Field goal3–0
DETQ1 11:3110Turnover3–0
TBQ1 11:20312Field goal6–0
DETQ1 9:00557Field goal6–3
TBQ1 7:1357Punt6–3
DETQ1 4:361267Field goal6–6
TBQ2 12:47670Touchdown13–6
DETQ2 9:081130Punt13–6
TBQ2 5:02632Turnover13–6
DETQ2 1:52947End of half13–6
DETQ3 15:00542Field goal13–9
TBQ3 11:533-3Punt13–9
DETQ3 9:331268Touchdown13–16
TBQ3 3:26655Touchdown20–16
DETQ3 0:34524Punt20–16
TBQ4 12:53414Punt20–16
DETQ4 9:57634Turnover20–16
TBQ4 7:3449Punt20–16
DETQ4 5:121376Turnover on downs20–16
TBQ4 0:5334Punt20–16
DETQ4 0:33518Turnover on downs20–16
TBQ4 0:0200End of half20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield12/1918511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Baker Mayfield5346.81
Bucky Irving7223.10
Rachaad White10181.80
Cade Otton1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Godwin Jr.781171
Mike Evans36420
Jalen McMillan12210
Rachaad White1150
Cade Otton0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff34/5530702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs13846.50
David Montgomery11353.21
Jameson Williams11515.00
Jared Goff252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown11181190
Jameson Williams511790
David Montgomery44350
Kalif Raymond34270
Jahmyr Gibbs77220
Sione Vaki11170
Sam LaPorta23130
Tim Patrick24120
Tom Kennedy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.83
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.88