2023 · Week 6
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
DET -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play+0.008
- 45.9%Success rate40.5%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.166
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.6%
- +1.34CPOE+0.25
- 42.4%Third-down rate42.2%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.29Points / drive1.86
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. TB are 7-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 30/44 | 353 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Craig Reynolds | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 6 | 14 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 12 | 15 | 124 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 2 | 3 | 53 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 4 | 11 | 36 | 0 |
| Craig Reynolds | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Devine Ozigbo | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 19/37 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 7 | 77 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 10 | 49 | 0 |
| Trey Palmer | 2 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Payne Durham | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Deven Thompkins | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.12