2025 · Week 7
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
DET -6
Total
54.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.006EPA / play+0.071
- 43.3%Success rate45.0%
- +0.064EPA / dropback+0.167
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
- -2.55CPOE+1.64
- 41.0%Third-down rate39.2%
- 61.0%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
- 1.89Points / drive2.54
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 28/50 | 228 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rachaad White | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Otton | 7 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 4 | 12 | 58 | 0 |
| Tez Johnson | 4 | 9 | 58 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 7 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Ryan Miller | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Sean Tucker | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/29 | 241 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 17 | 136 | 8.0 | 2 |
| David Montgomery | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 6 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 3 | 3 | 82 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Sam LaPorta | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.05