2025 · Week 7

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Baker Mayfield

9·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -6

Total

54.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapLions
  • +0.006EPA / play+0.071
  • 43.3%Success rate45.0%
  • +0.064EPA / dropback+0.167
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.4%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -2.55CPOE+1.64
  • 41.0%Third-down rate39.2%
  • 61.0%Red-zone TD rate66.0%
  • 1.89Points / drive2.54
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2020 · W16TB @ DET47–7TB
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET
2013 · W12TB @ DET24–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DET
DETQ1 15:00764Touchdown0–7
TBQ1 11:5937Punt0–7
DETQ1 9:37425Turnover0–7
TBQ1 7:4236Punt0–7
DETQ1 6:081071Turnover on downs0–7
TBQ1 0:4359Punt0–7
DETQ2 13:16413Punt0–7
TBQ2 10:08614Punt0–7
DETQ2 7:35593Touchdown0–14
TBQ2 5:513-1Punt0–14
DETQ2 4:1343Punt0–14
TBQ2 2:5211Turnover0–14
DETQ2 2:4335Missed field goal0–14
TBQ2 1:5210Turnover0–14
DETQ2 1:4651Turnover0–14
TBQ2 0:21222Field goal3–14
TBQ3 15:001172Touchdown9–14
DETQ3 8:49773Touchdown9–21
TBQ3 4:3937Punt9–21
DETQ3 2:511025Punt9–21
TBQ4 13:06529Turnover on downs9–21
DETQ4 11:3130Field goal9–24
TBQ4 10:181953Turnover on downs9–24
DETQ4 4:2432Punt9–24
TBQ4 3:58533Turnover on downs9–24
DETQ4 2:2834Punt9–24
TBQ4 0:1300End of half9–24

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield28/5022811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rachaad White10383.80
Sean Tucker144.00
Teddy Bridgewater1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cade Otton79650
Emeka Egbuka412580
Tez Johnson49581
Sterling Shepard77250
Ryan Miller11140
Rachaad White4660
Sean Tucker1120
Mike Evans0400
Kameron Johnson0100

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/2924111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs171368.02
David Montgomery13211.60
Jared Goff273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown610861
Jahmyr Gibbs33820
Brock Wright33230
David Montgomery23180
Kalif Raymond33170
Sam LaPorta33150
Jameson Williams0200
Isaac TeSlaa0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.05