2020 · Week 16
Final
Ford Field · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
TB -12
Total
55
Model margin
-5.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Lions
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.149EPA / play+0.014
- 46.9%Success rate45.5%
- +0.239EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.156
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +3.10CPOE-1.27
- 44.2%Third-down rate41.6%
- 67.2%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.68Points / drive2.14
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TB lead 11–10 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 22/27 | 348 | 4 | 0 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 9/15 | 143 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Blaine Gabbert | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Evans | 10 | 12 | 181 | 2 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 5 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2 | 2 | 58 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 6 | 35 | 1 |
| Tyler Johnson | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Ke'Shawn Vaughn | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 13/18 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| David Blough | 6/10 | 49 | 0 | 1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2/3 | 17 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
| David Blough | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Amendola | 5 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Quintez Cephus | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
1.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.9%
Expected total
47.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.99