2020 · Week 16

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

47·7

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

TB -12

Total

55

Model margin

-5.0est.

DET perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapLions
  • +0.149EPA / play+0.014
  • 46.9%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.156
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +3.10CPOE-1.27
  • 44.2%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 67.2%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.68Points / drive2.14
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TB lead 11–10 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. DET are 14-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7TB @ DET9–24DET
2024 · W2TB @ DET20–16TB
2023 · playoffsTB @ DET23–31DET
2023 · W6DET @ TB20–6DET
2019 · W15TB @ DET38–17TB
2017 · W14DET @ TB24–21DET
2014 · W14TB @ DET17–34DET
2013 · W12TB @ DET24–21TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–DET
TBQ1 15:00777Touchdown6–0
DETQ1 11:43424Punt6–0
TBQ1 9:45480Touchdown13–0
DETQ1 7:39514Punt13–0
TBQ1 4:48835Punt13–0
DETQ1 0:0634Punt13–0
TBQ2 14:15651Touchdown20–0
DETQ2 11:51512Punt20–0
TBQ2 9:02791Touchdown27–0
DETQ2 4:5233Punt27–0
TBQ2 3:201176Touchdown34–0
DETQ2 1:14530End of half34–0
DETQ3 15:0010Turnover40–0
TBQ3 14:55125Touchdown40–0
DETQ3 14:5060Punt40–0
TBQ3 11:0137Opp touchdown40–7
TBQ3 9:20573Touchdown47–7
DETQ3 7:07639Punt47–7
TBQ3 3:47946Turnover on downs47–7
DETQ4 14:5764Punt47–7
TBQ4 12:30920Missed field goal47–7
DETQ4 7:40856Turnover on downs47–7
TBQ4 4:403-2Punt47–7
DETQ4 2:1910Turnover47–7
TBQ4 2:08310End of half47–7

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady22/2734840
Blaine Gabbert9/1514320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn15624.10
Leonard Fournette9343.81
Blaine Gabbert2157.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Evans10121812
Chris Godwin Jr.59841
Rob Gronkowski22582
Antonio Brown46351
Tyler Johnson11350
Leonard Fournette33320
Cameron Brate22270
Tanner Hudson11200
Scott Miller1270
Ke'Shawn Vaughn1270
LeSean McCoy1150

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chase Daniel13/188600
David Blough6/104901
Matthew Stafford2/31700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift10454.50
David Blough11818.00
Adrian Peterson4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Danny Amendola57370
D'Andre Swift45250
T.J. Hockenson46230
Mohamed Sanu24220
Marvin Jones33190
Kerryon Johnson22170
Quintez Cephus1290
Jesse James0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -123.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.4%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

1.29%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.9%

Expected total

47.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.99