1999 · Week 9 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Tony Banks

41·9

Browns

Cleveland

QB Tim Couch

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 47°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

BAL -3.5

Total

32.5

Model margin

-0.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.091EPA / play-0.110
  • 36.5%Success rate35.3%
  • -0.084EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.177
  • 7.5%Explosive rate6.6%
  • 28.4%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 40.6%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.12
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
  • -0.151EPA / play allowed+0.100

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
BALQ1 15:001273Touchdown7–0
CLEQ1 8:0536Punt7–0
BALQ1 6:343-4Punt7–0
CLEQ1 5:0631Punt7–0
CLEQ1 3:34710Field goal7–3
BALQ1 0:1800Turnover7–3
CLEQ1 0:14630Turnover7–3
BALQ2 13:091080Touchdown14–3
CLEQ2 8:0930Punt14–3
BALQ2 6:5836Punt14–3
CLEQ2 5:353-8Punt14–3
BALQ2 4:041027Field goal17–3
CLEQ2 0:0300End of half17–3
CLEQ3 15:00420Punt17–3
BALQ3 12:4564Punt17–3
CLEQ3 9:261025Turnover on downs17–3
BALQ3 4:17363Touchdown24–3
CLEQ3 2:503-7Punt24–3
BALQ3 0:4832Punt24–3
CLEQ4 14:4135Punt24–3
BALQ4 13:15936Field goal27–3
CLEQ4 8:25617Opp touchdown34–3
BALQ4 6:5900Opp touchdown34–3
CLEQ4 6:59764Touchdown34–9
BALQ4 5:13431Touchdown41–9
CLEQ4 2:3847Punt41–9
BALQ4 1:4700End of half41–9

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Banks14/2512910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Errict Rhett171176.92
Priest Holmes10404.00
Tony Banks4235.80
Stoney Case4174.31
Chuck Evans362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Qadry Ismail27431
Justin Armour58380
Errict Rhett44210
Aaron Pierce22170
Pat Johnson13100
Chuck Evans0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ty Detmer7/158111
Tim Couch9/215701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar9232.60
Terry Kirby6193.20
Tim Couch471.80
Ty Detmer177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry Kirby56521
Kevin Johnson37430
Leslie Shepherd36230
Irv Smith2490
Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar1220
Darrin Chiaverini0400

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.48