Closing spread
BAL -3.5
Total
32.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play-0.110
- 36.5%Success rate35.3%
- -0.084EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.177
- 7.5%Explosive rate6.6%
- 28.4%Third-down rate29.7%
- 40.6%Red-zone TD rate74.3%
- 1.00Points / drive1.12
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.6%
- -0.151EPA / play allowed+0.100
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Banks | 14/25 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errict Rhett | 17 | 117 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Priest Holmes | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tony Banks | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Stoney Case | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Chuck Evans | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Qadry Ismail | 2 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Justin Armour | 5 | 8 | 38 | 0 |
| Errict Rhett | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Aaron Pierce | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chuck Evans | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Terry Kirby | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tim Couch | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Ty Detmer | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Kirby | 5 | 6 | 52 | 1 |
| Kevin Johnson | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Leslie Shepherd | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Abdul-Karim al-Jabbar | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Darrin Chiaverini | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.48