Closing spread
GB -9
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.016
- 38.6%Success rate40.8%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.154
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- 37.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 44.0%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.48
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 41–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CHI–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 12:14 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CHI | Q1 10:38 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 9:19 | 10 | 38 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CHI | Q1 4:46 | 7 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| GB | Q1 2:16 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 13:49 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 13:05 | 3 | 22 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 12:06 | 7 | 22 | Punt | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 8:17 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 7–3 |
| CHI | Q2 5:10 | 4 | 10 | Turnover | 7–3 |
| GB | Q2 3:16 | 9 | 49 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q2 0:30 | 5 | 19 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| GB | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q3 11:02 | 11 | 50 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| GB | Q3 4:11 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CHI | Q3 2:48 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| GB | Q3 0:29 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q4 11:06 | 11 | 57 | Missed field goal | 14–13 |
| GB | Q4 5:56 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–13 |
| CHI | Q4 4:55 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 14–13 |
| GB | Q4 3:19 | 14 | 64 | Missed field goal | 14–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 16/29 | 142 | 1 | 3 |
| Cade McNown | 2/5 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 1 |
| James Allen | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 4 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 27/40 | 267 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 26 | 79 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 8 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 3 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.80
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.51