Closing spread
GB -9
Total
40.5
Model margin
+5.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.016
- 38.6%Success rate40.8%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.060
- -0.228EPA / rush-0.154
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.8%
- 37.0%Third-down rate36.6%
- 44.0%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.03Points / drive1.48
- 3.1%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.001EPA / play allowed-0.019
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Miller | 16/29 | 142 | 1 | 3 |
| Cade McNown | 2/5 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Enis | 20 | 88 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 3 | 54 | 18.0 | 1 |
| James Allen | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cade McNown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Robinson | 4 | 9 | 66 | 0 |
| Bobby Engram | 6 | 10 | 48 | 1 |
| Macey Brooks | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| D'Wayne Bates | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Curtis Enis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| John Allred | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Edgar Bennett | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Wetnight | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Glyn Milburn | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 27/40 | 267 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorsey Levens | 26 | 79 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Freeman | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Freeman | 8 | 11 | 71 | 0 |
| Bill Schroeder | 4 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Dorsey Levens | 4 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyrone Davis | 3 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Jeff Thomason | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.80
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.51