Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play+0.075
- 41.6%Success rate45.1%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.155
- -0.045EPA / rush-0.054
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- +0.01CPOE+1.07
- 41.7%Third-down rate47.4%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
- 1.72Points / drive2.16
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11/16 | 148 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 12 | 28 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 4 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Robert Tonyan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 27/32 | 316 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 22 | 111 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 112 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 6 | 7 | 61 | 2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26