2023 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

9·17

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 34°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.052EPA / play+0.075
  • 41.6%Success rate45.1%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.155
  • -0.045EPA / rush-0.054
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • +0.01CPOE+1.07
  • 41.7%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate56.0%
  • 1.72Points / drive2.16
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB
2022 · W13GB @ CHI28–19GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
CHIQ1 15:00937Field goal3–0
GBQ1 8:541152Missed field goal3–0
CHIQ1 2:36519Punt3–0
GBQ2 14:021192Touchdown3–7
CHIQ2 7:201045Field goal6–7
GBQ2 1:17756End of half6–7
GBQ3 15:00975Touchdown6–14
CHIQ3 9:47727Punt6–14
GBQ3 4:54631Turnover6–14
CHIQ3 1:17741Field goal9–14
GBQ4 13:03465Field goal9–17
CHIQ4 10:54923Punt9–17
GBQ4 6:081063End of half9–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields11/1614800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert12282.30
Justin Fields8273.40
Roschon Johnson5204.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore46640
Cole Kmet34410
Equanimeous St. Brown11180
Khalil Herbert22130
Tyler Scott12120
Robert Tonyan0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love27/3231620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones221115.00
Bo Melton2147.00
Jordan Love3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jayden Reed441120
Bo Melton57620
Dontayvion Wicks67612
Tucker Kraft33310
Aaron Jones55300
Luke Musgrave11110
Malik Heath3490
Romeo Doubs0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.26