Closing spread
CHI -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play+0.076
- 48.0%Success rate45.7%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.076EPA / rush+0.007
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +5.62CPOE-3.48
- 48.8%Third-down rate42.0%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.39Points / drive2.32
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 9/11 | 121 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 8/13 | 77 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 14 | 82 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 12 | 36 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Savion Williams | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 5 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19/34 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 7 | 97 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Jahdae Walker | 2 | 3 | 21 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62