2025 · Week 16 · Division

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

16·22

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.122EPA / play+0.076
  • 48.0%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.076EPA / rush+0.007
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +5.62CPOE-3.48
  • 48.8%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.32
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB
2022 · W13GB @ CHI28–19GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:001031Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 9:471088Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ1 3:511373Field goal3–0
CHIQ2 12:45718Punt3–0
GBQ2 9:341676Field goal6–0
CHIQ2 1:41420Punt6–0
GBQ2 0:4500End of half6–0
CHIQ3 15:00538Field goal6–3
GBQ3 12:12962Turnover6–3
CHIQ3 6:57419Punt6–3
GBQ3 4:15669Touchdown13–3
CHIQ3 0:33957Field goal13–6
GBQ4 10:52938Field goal16–6
CHIQ4 5:031343Field goal16–9
GBQ4 1:5900Touchdown16–9
CHIQ4 1:56853Touchdown16–16
GBQ4 0:241-6End of half16–16
GBOT643Turnover on downs16–16
CHIOT464Touchdown16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis9/1112110
Jordan Love8/137700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson14825.90
Malik Willis10444.40
Josh Jacobs12363.00
Savion Williams294.50
Jordan Love273.50
Jayden Reed166.00
Chris Brooks144.00
Matthew Golden242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs56841
Luke Musgrave33380
Jayden Reed33350
Christian Watson26170
Josh Jacobs22120
Dontayvion Wicks22120
John FitzPatrick0100
Matthew Golden0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams19/3425020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift13584.50
Kyle Monangai9505.60
Caleb Williams33010.00
DJ Moore11212.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore57971
Kyle Monangai34430
Olamide Zaccheaus25330
Colston Loveland35300
Jahdae Walker23211
Cole Kmet23140
D'Andre Swift22120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62