2023 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

38·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

Soldier Field · outdoors

Closing spread

CHI -1

Total

41

Model margin

+0.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.075EPA / play-0.052
  • 45.1%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.045
  • 9.2%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +1.07CPOE+0.01
  • 47.4%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 56.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 2.16Points / drive1.72
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2022 · W13GB @ CHI28–19GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00628Turnover on downs0–0
GBQ1 11:311140Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 6:08648Field goal7–3
GBQ1 2:0434Punt7–3
CHIQ1 0:321147Field goal7–6
GBQ2 9:0038Punt7–6
CHIQ2 7:16410Punt7–6
GBQ2 5:28626Punt7–6
CHIQ2 2:12514Punt7–6
GBQ2 1:12522Field goal10–6
GBQ3 15:00875Touchdown17–6
CHIQ3 10:193-2Punt17–6
GBQ3 8:05442Touchdown24–6
CHIQ3 6:2637Turnover24–6
GBQ3 4:5832Punt24–6
CHIQ3 3:22755Touchdown24–14
GBQ3 0:59566Touchdown31–14
CHIQ4 13:303-1Opp touchdown38–14
CHIQ4 12:3659Punt38–14
GBQ4 10:12724Punt38–14
CHIQ4 6:181469Touchdown38–20
GBQ4 2:54520Turnover on downs38–20
CHIQ4 1:03527End of half38–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love15/2724530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones9414.61
Patrick Taylor5224.40
AJ Dillon13191.50
Jordan Love3124.00
Sean Clifford100.00
Jayden Reed1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Aaron Jones24861
Luke Musgrave34500
Jayden Reed25480
Romeo Doubs45262
Samori Toure23180
AJ Dillon23170
Dontayvion Wicks0200
Malik Heath0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields24/3721611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Fields9596.60
Khalil Herbert9273.00
Roschon Johnson5204.01
D'Onta Foreman5163.20
Cole Kmet100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney47531
Cole Kmet57440
Khalil Herbert35370
Roschon Johnson67350
DJ Moore22250
Tyler Scott22140
D'Onta Foreman2380
Chase Claypool0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.5%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.15