Closing spread
CHI -1
Total
41
Model margin
+0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.075EPA / play-0.052
- 45.1%Success rate41.6%
- +0.155EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.045
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.6%
- +1.07CPOE+0.01
- 47.4%Third-down rate41.7%
- 56.0%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.16Points / drive1.72
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 15/27 | 245 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Patrick Taylor | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Sean Clifford | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 2 | 4 | 86 | 1 |
| Luke Musgrave | 3 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 4 | 5 | 26 | 2 |
| Samori Toure | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| AJ Dillon | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 24/37 | 216 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 9 | 27 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 7 | 53 | 1 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 6 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.5%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.15