2026 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Tyson Bagent

7·31

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors

Closing spread

CHI -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+5.5est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • +0.052EPA / play+0.010
  • 47.0%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.142
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.266
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +5.30CPOE-1.28
  • 44.6%Third-down rate36.3%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.96
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB
2022 · W13GB @ CHI28–19GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
CHIQ1 15:0059Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:041091Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 5:5120Turnover0–7
GBQ1 5:321045Touchdown0–14
CHIQ2 14:5634Punt0–14
GBQ2 13:1538Punt0–14
CHIQ2 11:031778Touchdown7–14
GBQ2 1:5339Punt7–14
CHIQ2 1:2230Punt7–14
GBQ2 0:393-9End of half7–14
GBQ3 15:00582Touchdown7–20
CHIQ3 13:10842Missed field goal7–20
GBQ3 8:36613Punt7–20
CHIQ3 6:1437Punt7–20
GBQ3 4:08445Field goal7–23
CHIQ3 1:58513Turnover7–23
GBQ3 0:34355Touchdown7–31
CHIQ4 14:55522Turnover7–31
GBQ4 12:49457Missed field goal7–31
CHIQ4 9:46535Turnover7–31
GBQ4 8:26528Missed field goal7–31
CHIQ4 5:21522Turnover7–31
GBQ4 4:1236Punt7–31
CHIQ4 3:11814Turnover on downs7–31
GBQ4 1:0300End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Case Keenum11/1910801
Tyson Bagent12/218702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift9434.81
Tyson Bagent3175.70
Zavion Thomas11111.00
Roschon Johnson561.20
Case Keenum144.00
Luther Burden III420.50
Kalif Raymond1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luther Burden III46470
Rome Odunze39400
Roschon Johnson57340
D'Andre Swift45300
Colston Loveland25190
Zavion Thomas11110
Cole Kmet1280
Kalif Raymond3460
Jahdae Walker0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love25/3136720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
MarShawn Lloyd10313.12
Kaleb Johnson7263.70
Pierre Strong571.40
Jordan Love166.00
Tucker Kraft122.00
Tyrod Taylor2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson681432
Matthew Golden671230
Tucker Kraft55640
Bo Melton34200
Pierre Strong34110
MarShawn Lloyd1260
Skyy Moore1100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.4%6.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.5%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.38
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.46