Closing spread
GB -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
GB perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.072EPA / play+0.081
- 40.1%Success rate44.8%
- -0.036EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.030
- 5.9%Explosive rate11.7%
- -0.22CPOE+1.37
- 33.1%Third-down rate37.6%
- 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.65Points / drive2.38
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 21/29 | 148 | 1 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 9 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Willis | 10/13 | 136 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 7/12 | 69 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emanuel Wilson | 14 | 73 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Chris Brooks | 8 | 59 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 6 | 44 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Heath | 3 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Christian Watson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
3.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+5.75