2024 · Week 18 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

24·22

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 16°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

GB -10

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

GB perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPackers
  • -0.072EPA / play+0.081
  • 40.1%Success rate44.8%
  • -0.036EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.030
  • 5.9%Explosive rate11.7%
  • -0.22CPOE+1.37
  • 33.1%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 61.1%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.38
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. GB are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB
2022 · W13GB @ CHI28–19GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–GB
GBQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:583-9Punt0–0
GBQ1 9:39616Opp touchdown7–0
GBQ1 6:34747Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 2:2433Punt7–3
GBQ1 0:1014Turnover7–3
CHIQ1 0:02321Touchdown14–3
GBQ2 14:17963Touchdown14–10
CHIQ2 11:12627Punt14–10
GBQ2 7:251068Field goal14–13
CHIQ2 1:57615Punt14–13
GBQ2 0:3014End of half14–13
CHIQ3 15:00830Turnover14–13
GBQ3 10:50510Turnover14–13
CHIQ3 8:28721Punt14–13
GBQ3 4:08845Turnover on downs14–13
CHIQ4 14:55961Touchdown21–13
GBQ4 10:02423Punt21–13
CHIQ4 7:343-5Punt21–13
GBQ4 5:58561Touchdown21–19
CHIQ4 4:28723Turnover21–19
GBQ4 1:4936Field goal21–22
CHIQ4 0:54637Field goal24–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams21/2914810
Keenan Allen0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift20653.31
Caleb Williams3103.30
DJ Moore155.00
Roschon Johnson231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore910861
Keenan Allen33250
Rome Odunze22180
Roschon Johnson55160
Cole Kmet2230
D'Andre Swift0200

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Malik Willis10/1313600
Jordan Love7/126900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emanuel Wilson14735.21
Chris Brooks8597.40
Josh Jacobs6447.31
Malik Willis133.00
Jayden Reed331.00
Bo Melton111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Heath35530
Dontayvion Wicks56490
Jayden Reed22480
Tucker Kraft47360
Luke Musgrave11190
Josh Jacobs1120
Christian Watson0100
Chris Brooks0100
Emanuel Wilson11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

3.31%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+5.75