2025 · WC · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

27·31

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.122EPA / play+0.076
  • 48.0%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.274EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.076EPA / rush+0.007
  • 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +5.62CPOE-3.48
  • 48.8%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.39Points / drive2.32
  • 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB
2022 · W13GB @ CHI28–19GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001559Field goal0–3
GBQ1 7:02985Touchdown7–3
CHIQ1 2:06830Turnover7–3
GBQ2 12:231087Touchdown14–3
CHIQ2 6:4645Turnover on downs14–3
GBQ2 5:15832Touchdown21–3
CHIQ2 1:56528Turnover on downs21–3
GBQ2 0:32527Missed field goal21–3
GBQ3 15:003-2Punt21–3
CHIQ3 13:53747Field goal21–6
GBQ3 10:0738Punt21–6
CHIQ3 8:28961Turnover21–6
GBQ3 3:11523Punt21–6
CHIQ3 0:3562Field goal21–9
GBQ4 13:2930Punt21–9
CHIQ4 12:38766Touchdown21–16
GBQ4 10:08764Touchdown27–16
CHIQ4 6:361081Touchdown27–24
GBQ4 4:18748Missed field goal27–24
CHIQ4 2:51666Touchdown27–31
GBQ4 1:431149End of half27–31

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love24/4632340

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs19552.90
Chris Brooks11616.00
Jayden Reed11414.00
Jordan Love11111.00
Emanuel Wilson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Romeo Doubs8111241
Matthew Golden45841
Jayden Reed47431
Christian Watson37361
Chris Brooks11110
Luke Musgrave1290
Josh Whyle1170
Josh Jacobs1330

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams24/4836122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift13544.21
Kyle Monangai8273.40
Caleb Williams4205.00
Cole Kmet111.00
Luther Burden III1-4-4.00
DJ Moore1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Colston Loveland8151370
DJ Moore67641
Rome Odunze26440
Luther Burden III37420
D'Andre Swift22380
Kyle Monangai13220
Olamide Zaccheaus1281
Durham Smythe1260
Cole Kmet0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.62