Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.122EPA / play+0.076
- 48.0%Success rate45.7%
- +0.274EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.076EPA / rush+0.007
- 10.3%Explosive rate10.1%
- +5.62CPOE-3.48
- 48.8%Third-down rate42.0%
- 62.5%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.39Points / drive2.32
- 1.3%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 24/46 | 323 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 55 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 8 | 11 | 124 | 1 |
| Matthew Golden | 4 | 5 | 84 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 7 | 43 | 1 |
| Christian Watson | 3 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 24/48 | 361 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colston Loveland | 8 | 15 | 137 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 6 | 7 | 64 | 1 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 2 | 38 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.62