Closing spread
GB -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.122
- 45.7%Success rate48.0%
- +0.122EPA / dropback+0.274
- +0.007EPA / rush-0.076
- 10.1%Explosive rate10.3%
- -3.48CPOE+5.62
- 42.0%Third-down rate48.8%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 2.32Points / drive2.39
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. GB are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 19/35 | 186 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 63 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 14 | 57 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luther Burden III | 4 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 5 | 29 | 1 |
| Devin Duvernay | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| Durham Smythe | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 17/25 | 234 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jordan Love | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4 | 4 | 89 | 2 |
| Bo Melton | 1 | 2 | 45 | 1 |
| Jayden Reed | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Luke Musgrave | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Whyle | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| John FitzPatrick | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Golden | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.66%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.1%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.08
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+1.87