Closing spread
GB -6
Total
41
Model margin
-3.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.072
- 44.8%Success rate40.1%
- +0.182EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.030EPA / rush-0.142
- 11.7%Explosive rate5.9%
- +1.37CPOE-0.22
- 37.6%Third-down rate33.1%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.38Points / drive1.65
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | 13/17 | 261 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 18 | 76 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Jordan Love | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Watson | 4 | 4 | 150 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Jayden Reed | 2 | 2 | 23 | 1 |
| Romeo Doubs | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Brooks | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tucker Kraft | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 23/31 | 231 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 9 | 70 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 1 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 6 | 10 | 65 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 7 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.7%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.28
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-3.14