2024 · Week 11 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Jordan Love

20·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

GB -6

Total

41

Model margin

-3.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.072
  • 44.8%Success rate40.1%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.030EPA / rush-0.142
  • 11.7%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +1.37CPOE-0.22
  • 37.6%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 2.38Points / drive1.65
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB
2022 · W13GB @ CHI28–19GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
GBQ1 15:00870Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 11:15734Field goal7–3
GBQ1 7:49518Punt7–3
CHIQ1 4:541246Punt7–3
GBQ2 13:281361Turnover7–3
CHIQ2 5:491376Touchdown7–10
GBQ2 0:0700End of half7–10
CHIQ3 15:00961Field goal7–13
GBQ3 10:17765Touchdown14–13
CHIQ3 6:341283Touchdown14–19
GBQ3 0:31775Turnover on downs14–19
CHIQ4 11:191249Punt14–19
GBQ4 4:17478Touchdown20–19
CHIQ4 2:59642Missed field goal20–19

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jordan Love13/1726111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs18764.21
Jordan Love4184.51
Emanuel Wilson2178.50
Jayden Reed1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Watson441500
Josh Jacobs45580
Jayden Reed22231
Romeo Doubs12170
Chris Brooks22130
Dontayvion Wicks0100
Tucker Kraft0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams23/3123100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift14715.11
Caleb Williams9707.80
Roschon Johnson10333.31
DJ Moore155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze610650
DJ Moore77620
Cole Kmet33420
Keenan Allen48410
D'Andre Swift22130
Roschon Johnson1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%6.9%3.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.7%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-3.14