Closing spread
MIN -6.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.013EPA / play+0.042
- 39.6%Success rate44.6%
- +0.043EPA / dropback+0.128
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.9%
- 34.8%Third-down rate44.4%
- 51.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.25Points / drive1.72
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
- -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.008
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Aikman | 14/24 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Garrett | 3/11 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 13 | 140 | 10.8 | 2 |
| Chris Warren | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Jason Garrett | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Troy Aikman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raghib Ismail | 7 | 12 | 63 | 0 |
| Ernie Mills | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 5 | 6 | 29 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| David LaFleur | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeff Ogden | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff George | 17/30 | 218 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leroy Hoard | 21 | 87 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Moe Williams | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jeff George | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cris Carter | 9 | 10 | 116 | 1 |
| Randy Moss | 6 | 10 | 91 | 2 |
| Andrew Jordan | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Andrew Glover | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Hatchette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Leroy Hoard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Reed | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.72%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.39