1999 · Week 9

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Troy Aikman

17·27

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Jeff George

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

MIN -6.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapVikings
  • -0.013EPA / play+0.042
  • 39.6%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.043EPA / dropback+0.128
  • -0.079EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.9%
  • 34.8%Third-down rate44.4%
  • 51.1%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.25Points / drive1.72
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.4%
  • -0.080EPA / play allowed-0.008

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIN
DALQ1 15:001065Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 10:16746Missed field goal0–0
DALQ1 6:281040Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 1:0632Punt0–0
DALQ1 0:04757Field goal3–0
MINQ2 11:213-7Punt3–0
DALQ2 9:0435Punt3–0
MINQ2 7:213-10Punt9–0
DALQ2 6:31163Touchdown10–0
MINQ2 6:2100Touchdown16–0
DALQ2 6:21124Touchdown17–0
MINQ2 6:03411Punt17–0
DALQ2 4:2535Turnover17–0
MINQ2 3:25521Touchdown17–7
DALQ2 1:53632Punt17–7
MINQ2 0:2620Turnover17–7
DALQ2 0:072-4End of half17–7
MINQ3 15:00957Field goal17–10
DALQ3 10:2932Punt17–10
MINQ3 8:24648Field goal17–13
DALQ3 4:4040Punt17–13
MINQ3 3:181056Touchdown17–20
DALQ4 13:3837Turnover17–20
MINQ4 12:0235Punt17–20
DALQ4 10:28526Punt17–20
MINQ4 8:08663Touchdown17–27
DALQ4 5:1032Punt17–27
MINQ4 4:3138Punt17–27
DALQ4 3:5544Turnover on downs17–27
MINQ4 2:59212End of half17–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Troy Aikman14/2412900
Jason Garrett3/11401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith1314010.82
Chris Warren7527.40
Jason Garrett2115.50
Raghib Ismail122.00
Troy Aikman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Raghib Ismail712630
Ernie Mills35310
Chris Warren56290
Emmitt Smith1290
Jason Tucker1310
David LaFleur0100
Jeff Ogden0400

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jeff George17/3021831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leroy Hoard21874.10
Moe Williams6203.30
Jeff George5112.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cris Carter9101161
Randy Moss610912
Andrew Jordan1290
Andrew Glover1220
Matt Hatchette0100
Leroy Hoard0100
Jimmy Kleinsasser0100
Jake Reed0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.72%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.39