Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
50
Model margin
+1.5est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.089
- 46.1%Success rate49.1%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.175
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.025
- 7.8%Explosive rate11.4%
- -1.42CPOE+4.45
- 41.5%Third-down rate41.2%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
- 1.87Points / drive2.30
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 22/32 | 203 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21 | 103 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 5 | 60 | 12.0 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 7 | 81 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 4 | 6 | 34 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 6 | 25 | 1 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/30 | 314 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 27 | 115 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 8 | 11 | 123 | 2 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 86 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.64
- Expected margin+1.51