2020 · Week 11

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Andy Dalton

31·28

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

50

Model margin

+1.5est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapVikings
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.089
  • 46.1%Success rate49.1%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.175
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.025
  • 7.8%Explosive rate11.4%
  • -1.42CPOE+4.45
  • 41.5%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate74.1%
  • 1.87Points / drive2.30
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIN
DALQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:3159Turnover0–0
DALQ1 10:57330Touchdown6–0
MINQ1 9:261485Touchdown6–7
DALQ1 2:111047Turnover6–7
MINQ2 13:04532Punt6–7
DALQ2 9:56952Touchdown13–7
MINQ2 4:55411Punt13–7
DALQ2 3:42622Turnover on downs13–7
MINQ2 1:51331Turnover13–7
DALQ2 0:49447Field goal16–7
MINQ2 0:0200End of half16–7
MINQ3 15:00975Touchdown16–14
DALQ3 9:50624Punt16–14
MINQ3 6:441296Touchdown16–21
DALQ4 14:57575Touchdown24–21
MINQ4 12:02575Touchdown24–28
DALQ4 9:3768Punt24–28
MINQ4 5:54412Punt24–28
DALQ4 4:001166Touchdown31–28
MINQ4 1:3744Turnover on downs31–28
DALQ4 1:1800End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton22/3220331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott211034.90
Tony Pollard56012.01
CeeDee Lamb2126.00
Andy Dalton351.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper67810
CeeDee Lamb46341
Michael Gallup25290
Dalton Schultz46251
Blake Bell11130
Ezekiel Elliott22111
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1270
Noah Brown1160
Andy Dalton11-30

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3031430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook271154.31
Alexander Mattison166.00
Kirk Cousins144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen8111232
Justin Jefferson35861
Dalvin Cook55450
Kyle Rudolph33280
Irv Smith22230
Bisi Johnson1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.62%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.45
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.64
  • Expected margin+1.51