Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play+0.004
- 45.2%Success rate45.8%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.95CPOE+1.66
- 46.2%Third-down rate40.7%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 2.26Points / drive2.04
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 22/25 | 276 | 2 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 4/5 | 31 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 15 | 42 | 2.8 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 6 | 6 | 109 | 2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 12/23 | 105 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 5/7 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 11 | 72 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 5 | 9 | 34 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kene Nwangwu | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.61