2022 · Week 11

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

40·3

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DAL -1.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapVikings
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.004
  • 45.2%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.130
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.95CPOE+1.66
  • 46.2%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.04
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIN
MINQ1 15:0032Turnover0–0
DALQ1 13:44618Field goal3–0
MINQ1 10:221055Field goal3–3
DALQ1 6:391075Touchdown10–3
MINQ1 1:26520Punt10–3
DALQ2 13:251453Field goal13–3
MINQ2 5:3133Punt13–3
DALQ2 4:27859Touchdown20–3
MINQ2 1:43718Punt20–3
DALQ2 0:31444Field goal23–3
DALQ3 15:00575Touchdown30–3
MINQ3 12:324-10Punt30–3
DALQ3 10:09541Touchdown37–3
MINQ3 8:15624Punt37–3
DALQ3 6:1134Punt37–3
MINQ3 3:55719Punt37–3
DALQ3 1:09954Field goal40–3
MINQ4 10:04519Punt40–3
DALQ4 8:16835Punt40–3
MINQ4 3:19733End of half40–3

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott22/2527620
Cooper Rush4/53100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard15805.30
Ezekiel Elliott15422.82
Dak Prescott3165.30
Malik Davis7131.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Pollard661092
CeeDee Lamb55450
Noah Brown22420
Michael Gallup34410
Dalton Schultz35220
Malik Davis23220
Jake Ferguson22150
Jalen Tolbert1180
Ezekiel Elliott1150
Peyton Hendershot11-20

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins12/2310500
Nick Mullens5/75400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook11726.50
Kene Nwangwu410.30
Alexander Mattison200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson59340
Justin Jefferson35330
Adam Thielen23250
K.J. Osborn23170
Jalen Nailor13150
Jalen Reagor11140
Johnny Mundt1180
Alexander Mattison1180
Kene Nwangwu1150
Dalvin Cook0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.10
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.61