Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play-0.042
- 48.6%Success rate42.5%
- +0.226EPA / dropback+0.075
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.253
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
- +4.07CPOE+3.80
- 43.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.52Points / drive1.65
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 12/18 | 139 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 86 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 6 | 37 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Lucky Whitehead | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 6 | 84 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 32/45 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 6 | 30 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 9 | 86 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 8 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 6 | 12 | 45 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5 | 6 | 14 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.40