2016 · Week 13

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

17·15

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapVikings
  • +0.126EPA / play-0.042
  • 48.6%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.226EPA / dropback+0.075
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.253
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +4.07CPOE+3.80
  • 43.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.52Points / drive1.65
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIN
DALQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:19947Punt0–0
DALQ1 6:5830Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:45642Field goal0–3
DALQ1 2:28747Turnover0–3
MINQ2 14:13618Punt0–3
DALQ2 10:41884Touchdown7–3
MINQ2 5:2957Punt7–3
DALQ2 3:1539Punt7–3
MINQ2 1:52612Punt7–3
DALQ2 0:151-3End of half7–3
MINQ3 15:00951Punt7–3
DALQ3 10:18630Punt7–3
MINQ3 7:02949Field goal7–6
DALQ3 2:1044Turnover7–6
MINQ3 0:0739Field goal7–9
DALQ4 14:11725Punt13–9
DALQ4 10:2818Touchdown14–9
MINQ4 10:22611Punt14–9
DALQ4 6:37433Field goal17–9
MINQ4 4:15511Punt17–9
DALQ4 2:5839Punt17–9
MINQ4 2:09961Touchdown17–15
DALQ4 0:2500End of half17–15

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott12/1813910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott20864.31
Dak Prescott6376.20
Alfred Morris11111.00
Lucky Whitehead166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant46841
Cole Beasley24230
Ezekiel Elliott45190
Terrance Williams23130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford32/4524710
Shaun Hill1/1600
Jerick McKinnon0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon9414.60
Matt Asiata6305.00
Sam Bradford2105.00
Cordarrelle Patterson263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen79860
Stefon Diggs88590
Kyle Rudolph612450
Charles D. Johnson35360
Jerick McKinnon56141
Cordarrelle Patterson23100
Rhett Ellison1160
Laquon Treadwell0200
Matt Asiata11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.40