Closing spread
MIN -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.002EPA / play-0.112
- 43.2%Success rate42.3%
- +0.048EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.121
- 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
- +2.25CPOE-2.30
- 40.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 65.7%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.67Points / drive1.25
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 24/32 | 220 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 14 | 32 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 10 | 10 | 61 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 3 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 1 | 2 | 31 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 3 | 3 | 28 | 2 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Gronkowski | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 14/19 | 118 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 24 | 73 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Moss | 5 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Bernard Berrian | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.17
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.56