2010 · Week 6

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

21·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapVikings
  • -0.002EPA / play-0.112
  • 43.2%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.048EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.121
  • 9.1%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +2.25CPOE-2.30
  • 40.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 65.7%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.67Points / drive1.25
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIN
DALQ1 15:00615Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:26722Turnover0–0
DALQ1 9:05848Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 5:023-4Punt7–0
DALQ1 2:5237Turnover7–0
MINQ1 1:25321Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 15:00733Punt7–7
MINQ2 10:39613Punt7–7
DALQ2 7:341387Touchdown14–7
MINQ2 0:2928End of half14–13
MINQ3 15:0000Touchdown14–14
DALQ3 14:4833Punt14–14
MINQ3 13:19848Punt14–14
DALQ3 8:3442Punt14–14
MINQ3 6:02949Touchdown14–21
DALQ3 0:431070Touchdown21–21
MINQ4 10:1835Punt21–21
DALQ4 9:0338Turnover21–21
MINQ4 7:33615Field goal21–24
DALQ4 4:0335Punt21–24
MINQ4 2:32611Punt21–24
DALQ4 0:13230End of half21–24

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo24/3222032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones14322.30
Tony Romo33110.30
Marion Barber10313.10
Chris Gronkowski100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Felix Jones1010610
Jason Witten35520
Dez Bryant12311
Roy Williams33282
Marion Barber33150
Miles Austin25120
Chris Gronkowski23100
Martellus Bennett0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre14/1911810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson24733.01
Percy Harvin2189.00
Toby Gerhart144.00
Brett Favre100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randy Moss56550
Jimmy Kleinsasser22250
Percy Harvin36210
Greg Camarillo22151
Bernard Berrian1240
Adrian Peterson11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.67
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.17
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.56