2013 · Week 9

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

23·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -10

Total

51

Model margin

+4.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.062
  • 41.4%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.026EPA / dropback+0.087
  • -0.002EPA / rush+0.011
  • 10.2%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.09CPOE+0.26
  • 36.4%Third-down rate35.6%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.21
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DAL
MINQ1 15:00937Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:06856Field goal0–3
MINQ1 6:511059Field goal3–3
DALQ1 2:083-3Punt3–3
MINQ1 1:11721Turnover on downs3–3
DALQ2 13:311158Field goal3–6
MINQ2 6:351179Touchdown10–6
DALQ2 1:41617Punt10–6
MINQ2 0:2613End of half10–6
DALQ3 15:00674Touchdown10–13
MINQ3 11:381-5Opp touchdown10–20
MINQ3 11:28677Touchdown17–20
DALQ3 8:11314Punt17–20
MINQ3 6:2734Punt17–20
DALQ3 4:26916Punt17–20
MINQ3 0:18520Turnover17–20
DALQ4 13:08617Punt17–20
MINQ4 10:32982Touchdown23–20
DALQ4 5:40411Turnover23–20
MINQ4 4:2935Punt23–20
DALQ4 2:44990Touchdown23–27
MINQ4 0:35511End of half23–27

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder25/3723611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson251405.61
Christian Ponder4297.31

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Jennings69560
Adrian Peterson33370
Kyle Rudolph22351
Jarius Wright35310
Jerome Simpson25240
John Carlson46230
Cordarrelle Patterson34130
Toby Gerhart1160

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo34/5133721

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray4317.80
Tony Romo188.00
Joseph Randle133.00
Lance Dunbar3-6-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten8101021
Cole Beasley69680
Dez Bryant611640
Terrance Williams27330
James Hanna11210
DeMarco Murray67190
Lance Dunbar33170
Dwayne Harris22131

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.98