Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
51
Model margin
+4.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.062
- 41.4%Success rate47.2%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.087
- -0.002EPA / rush+0.011
- 10.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.09CPOE+0.26
- 36.4%Third-down rate35.6%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate68.9%
- 1.75Points / drive2.21
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 25/37 | 236 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 25 | 140 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Christian Ponder | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Jennings | 6 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2 | 2 | 35 | 1 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Jerome Simpson | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 34/51 | 337 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 31 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | -6 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 8 | 10 | 102 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 9 | 68 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 11 | 64 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.53
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.98