2025 · Week 15

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

34·26

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.094EPA / play+0.109
  • 43.3%Success rate47.2%
  • -0.115EPA / dropback+0.177
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.007
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -2.84CPOE+1.89
  • 32.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 55.7%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.53
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DAL
MINQ1 15:0026Turnover0–0
DALQ1 14:021135Touchdown0–7
MINQ1 8:23518Punt0–7
DALQ1 4:3138Punt0–7
MINQ1 3:08238Touchdown7–7
DALQ1 2:35761Touchdown7–14
MINQ2 14:521180Touchdown14–14
DALQ2 9:28724Missed field goal14–14
MINQ2 5:51838Field goal17–14
DALQ2 1:48941Field goal17–17
MINQ2 0:0300End of half17–17
DALQ3 15:00650Field goal17–20
MINQ3 11:1431Punt17–20
DALQ3 10:10877Field goal17–23
MINQ3 4:50970Touchdown24–23
DALQ3 1:12724Missed field goal24–23
MINQ4 12:20551Touchdown31–23
DALQ4 9:12961Turnover on downs31–23
MINQ4 5:30926Field goal34–23
DALQ4 1:08442Field goal34–26
MINQ4 0:1900End of half34–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy15/2425021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones12342.80
Jordan Mason10292.90
J.J. McCarthy4153.81
Jalen Nailor1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson45660
Jordan Addison22660
Jalen Nailor35472
Aaron Jones33310
Justin Jefferson28220
Josh Oliver11180

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/3829400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Javonte Williams15916.11
Malik Davis8212.61
Hunter Luepke3165.30
Brandon Aubrey166.00
Dak Prescott122.00
KaVontae Turpin122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb6101110
Ryan Flournoy45400
George Pickens36330
Luke Schoonmaker11290
Jonathan Mingo11250
Malik Davis23160
Jake Ferguson24160
Hunter Luepke22140
KaVontae Turpin22100
Brevyn Spann-Ford0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.74