Closing spread
DAL -5.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.094EPA / play+0.109
- 43.3%Success rate47.2%
- -0.115EPA / dropback+0.177
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.007
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.84CPOE+1.89
- 32.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 55.7%Red-zone TD rate61.6%
- 1.75Points / drive2.53
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 15/24 | 250 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 34 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Jalen Nailor | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 5 | 66 | 0 |
| Jordan Addison | 2 | 2 | 66 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 5 | 47 | 2 |
| Aaron Jones | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/38 | 294 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 15 | 91 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Malik Davis | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Hunter Luepke | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Brandon Aubrey | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.21
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.74