2019 · Week 10

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

28·24

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

DAL -3.5

Total

48.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.056EPA / play+0.111
  • 42.1%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.017
  • 10.7%Explosive rate11.1%
  • +3.53CPOE+1.10
  • 44.0%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 66.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.45
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2021 · W8DAL @ MIN20–16DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–DAL
DALQ1 15:00836Missed field goal0–0
MINQ1 12:03548Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 9:25627Punt7–0
MINQ1 6:511376Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 0:32635Punt14–0
MINQ2 13:31510Punt14–0
DALQ2 10:40548Touchdown14–7
MINQ2 8:0833Punt14–7
DALQ2 6:331183Touchdown14–14
MINQ2 1:54867Field goal17–14
MINQ3 15:001356Field goal20–14
DALQ3 9:38760Touchdown20–21
MINQ3 7:011380Touchdown28–21
DALQ3 0:021365Field goal28–24
MINQ4 10:00828Punt28–24
DALQ4 4:341180Turnover on downs28–24
MINQ4 0:403-4Punt28–24
DALQ4 0:1749Turnover28–24

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/3222020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook26973.71
Alexander Mattison8526.50
Kirk Cousins155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalvin Cook77860
Stefon Diggs36490
Irv Smith56340
Bisi Johnson24250
Kyle Rudolph45142
Laquon Treadwell11100
Alexander Mattison1120
Tyler Conklin0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott28/4639731
Randall Cobb0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott20472.40
Tavon Austin177.00
Tony Pollard1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper11141471
Randall Cobb681061
Michael Gallup410761
Blake Jarwin34350
Jason Witten25170
Ezekiel Elliott23160

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.21