Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.056EPA / play+0.111
- 42.1%Success rate48.7%
- +0.177EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.082EPA / rush-0.017
- 10.7%Explosive rate11.1%
- +3.53CPOE+1.10
- 44.0%Third-down rate47.2%
- 66.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 2.31Points / drive2.45
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 4-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/32 | 220 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 26 | 97 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Alexander Mattison | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 7 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Irv Smith | 5 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Bisi Johnson | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 4 | 5 | 14 | 2 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Tyler Conklin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 28/46 | 397 | 3 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 11 | 14 | 147 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 6 | 8 | 106 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| Blake Jarwin | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.55
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.21