Closing spread
MIN -4.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.018
- 46.8%Success rate41.6%
- +0.168EPA / dropback+0.102
- -0.062EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.4%Explosive rate10.3%
- +1.99CPOE+0.82
- 43.7%Third-down rate36.6%
- 61.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
- 2.44Points / drive2.13
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–6 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 24/40 | 325 | 2 | 1 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 1/1 | 35 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 50 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 13 | 122 | 1 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 6 | 8 | 112 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson Jr. | 3 | 3 | 84 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 23/35 | 184 | 1 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 18 | 78 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 9 | 78 | 1 |
| Tyler Conklin | 5 | 7 | 57 | 0 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| K.J. Osborn | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Chris Herndon | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Dalvin Cook | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
1.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+2.08
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30