2021 · Week 8

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

20·16

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -4.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapVikings
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.018
  • 46.8%Success rate41.6%
  • +0.168EPA / dropback+0.102
  • -0.062EPA / rush-0.111
  • 9.4%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +1.99CPOE+0.82
  • 43.7%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 61.6%Red-zone TD rate67.7%
  • 2.44Points / drive2.13
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 8–6 since 1999

Meetings average 44.8 points. MIN are 10-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIN @ DAL34–26MIN
2022 · W11DAL @ MIN40–3DAL
2020 · W11DAL @ MIN31–28DAL
2019 · W10MIN @ DAL28–24MIN
2016 · W13DAL @ MIN17–15DAL
2013 · W9MIN @ DAL23–27DAL
2010 · W6DAL @ MIN21–24MIN
2009 · playoffsDAL @ MIN3–34MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–MIN
MINQ1 15:00861Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 11:491150Missed field goal0–7
MINQ1 5:19418Punt0–7
DALQ1 3:50948Turnover0–7
MINQ2 14:1745Punt0–7
DALQ2 12:341160Field goal3–7
MINQ2 6:091044Field goal3–10
DALQ2 1:44510Punt3–10
MINQ2 0:37319End of half3–10
DALQ3 15:00375Touchdown10–10
MINQ3 14:07627Punt10–10
DALQ3 11:103-8Punt10–10
MINQ3 9:32633Field goal10–13
DALQ3 6:31518Punt10–13
MINQ3 3:5034Punt10–13
DALQ3 2:11537Field goal13–13
MINQ3 0:0436Punt13–13
DALQ4 13:39853Turnover13–13
MINQ4 9:5634Punt13–13
DALQ4 9:0331Punt13–13
MINQ4 8:081036Field goal13–16
DALQ4 2:511075Touchdown20–16
MINQ4 0:51522Turnover on downs20–16

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush24/4032521
Cedrick Wilson Jr.1/13500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott16503.10
Tony Pollard7263.70
Cooper Rush122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper8131221
CeeDee Lamb681120
Cedrick Wilson Jr.33841
Ezekiel Elliott46230
Dalton Schultz27110
Noah Brown1270
Tony Pollard1110
Blake Jarwin0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins23/3518410
Justin Jefferson0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook18784.30
Kirk Cousins3186.00
Alexander Mattison252.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen69781
Tyler Conklin57570
Justin Jefferson24210
K.J. Osborn23100
Luke Stocker1170
Chris Herndon1170
Ihmir Smith-Marsette1160
Dalvin Cook0200
Alexander Mattison22-50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

1.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.48
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.08
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30