Closing spread
PK
Total
35.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
SD perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 27 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:50 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:03 | 10 | 51 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:41 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q2 13:20 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 13:20 | 16 | 41 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 5:51 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:38 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 10–3 |
| DEN | Q2 1:49 | 9 | 38 | Field goal | 13–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–3 |
| DEN | Q3 13:13 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 13–3 |
| LAC | Q3 10:05 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 13–3 |
| DEN | Q3 9:12 | 2 | 31 | Touchdown | 20–3 |
| LAC | Q3 8:28 | 10 | 87 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| DEN | Q3 3:10 | 8 | 43 | Field goal | 23–10 |
| LAC | Q4 13:26 | 8 | 59 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
| DEN | Q4 9:17 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 23–17 |
| DEN | Q4 7:37 | 8 | 32 | Field goal | 26–17 |
| LAC | Q4 4:18 | 4 | -6 | Turnover on downs | 26–17 |
| DEN | Q4 3:15 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 33–17 |
| LAC | Q4 1:56 | 8 | 46 | Turnover | 33–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Miller | 14/24 | 166 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olandis Gary | 30 | 108 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Howard Griffith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Smith | 5 | 7 | 70 | 0 |
| Billy Miller | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Howard Griffith | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Andre Cooper | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Olandis Gary | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| John Avery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.82%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.92
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.